They represented up to 75% of total new car sales at the end of the 2000s, and even more than 95% for certain categories such as minivans or large SUVs. We are of course talking, and only in France, about diesels. More sober, less CO2 emitting, now efficient and with formidable driving pleasure, they also benefited from the generosity of the state, which encouraged their purchase with an ecological bonus, since this was backed by CO2 emissions. .
But in 2015, there was a big turnaround. Dieselgate broke out, this scandal of cheating on polluting emissions, for which Volkswagen was primarily responsible, and accused as such, while many other brands were caught with their hands in the pot of tampered with electronic chips.
From there, diesel will only decline, year after year. Until today, it only represents 8.6% of sales on the French market (diesel hybrids included). That’s almost half as much as electric vehicles!
Diesel falling on the second-hand market
On the second-hand market, there is also an increasingly rapid decline. And it's logical: if the new market is empty of diesels, the second-hand market will do the same, a few years later. That said, it remains at a much higher level than new. On La Centrale, 30.2% of the ads are for diesels. On the right corner, which also displays older vehicles, 41.6% of the ads offer diesel cars. According to statistics from NGC-AAA Data, in 2020, diesel represented 57.5% of trade. In 2021 55.5%. In 2022 52.1%, and in 2023 50.9%. Since the start of 2024, we have been at 47.7%, a sign of an acceleration in the fall of second-hand diesels.
This is all mechanical. But the buyers? Do THEY still want diesel, or on the contrary are these models being shunned? Second-hand sales professionals say that if they have too many EVs in stock, they run out of diesels.
But another component comes into play. There is certainly a shortage of supply, but also the threat of traffic restrictions. Diesels cannot receive the Crit'Air 1 sticker. They are, at best, Crit'Air 2 for models after January 1, 2011 (or complying with the Euro 5 or 6 standard).
However, Crit'Air 3 vehicles (from 2006 to 2011) will for example be banned from the Paris region (A86 perimeter), Grenoble or Lyon, from January 1, 2025. And the Crit'Air 2 must follow in 2028. Future restrictions which obviously make you hesitate when you have to choose.
Despite scarcity, prices are falling ever faster
But another phenomenon counters all this. An economical basic that makes everything rare expensive. And if supply falls in the face of identical demand, prices automatically increase. If we follow logic, the rarer diesels are in advertisements, the more their price should increase.
Well, let's get rid of the suspense right away. This basic rule no longer works here. All studies say that the price of used diesels is falling at the end of the year, which was not the case until spring.
Yes but… All prices are falling at the moment, you will retort! This is also true, but the price of diesels is falling “faster” than the price of gasoline or hybrid models. In reality, it is only the price of used electric models that is falling more quickly at the moment, but for other reasons linked to a maturing market.
Thus, the Price Observatory of the La Centrale site (we recall here that Caradisiac and La Centrale are part of the same group), based on the study of 330,000 online advertisements and the sales prices displayed, concludes that there is a drop in prices. higher price for diesels, between the 3rd quarter of 2023 and the 3rd quarter of 2024. The difference is not huge, but it is – 10% for gasoline and – 10.5% for diesels. Gasoline hybrids fell by -10.3%.
More interestingly, prices between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 fell by 1.5% for diesels, while prices for gasoline did not fall at all. Evidence of price stabilization for the latter, while the former continue to fall. Hybrids, petrol and diesels (PHEV included) fell on average by 1.7% for petrol, and 0% for diesel over the same period. This counterbalances the observation, but diesel hybrids are all plug-in hybrids, with particular behavior and very low transaction volumes in any case.
Petrol models more expensive today, when they cost less to buy
In any case, we note that the trend is, on the global market, that of large volumes, towards a continued decline in the value of diesels.
Our own observations of discounts, model by model, support the study figures. Because that of La Centrale is not the only one. The barometer of another classified ads site, AutoScout24, mentions that only gasoline models are seeing their prices stabilize or even increase (3% over one year between June 2023 and June 2024), unlike diesels.
A petrol Clio, with equivalent age, mileage, power and equipment, is very often more expensive than a diesel Clio, the opposite being the exception. This phenomenon is, however, less marked in rural areas, not subject to EPZs. A BMW 320d for its part is now more affordable than a used 320i, and this is even more the case for a 330d compared to a 330i or 328i. There are hundreds of examples.
For many, diesel is no longer an option, with the question of renewing their car being between gasoline, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric. Even the drop in prices is not enough to restore interest in fatty fuel…
So to conclude, and answer the question: no, the price of diesel is not going to rise. The odds curve, which hesitated for a while between plus and minus, is now quite clearly oriented downward. And unless there is a total turnaround in the situation, which is almost impossible today, this fuel will have less and less of a place, especially since the traffic restrictions, postponed at the moment, will eventually arrive. and automatically disqualify him. However, we will continue to carefully observe the discounts. Because for amateurs, not affected by the restrictions of use, there will probably be excellent deals to be made financially speaking in the future.
