In the midst of a political crisis and in a context of strong tensions with Algeria, François Bayrou, 73, was appointed Prime Minister in France on Friday December 13, replacing Michel Barnier, censored by Parliament.
This change comes at a time when the relationship between France and Algeria is at its worst. What impact is expected on the bilateral relationship after the appointment to the government of a figure who is neither part of the hard right nor the far right, a movement directly responsible for the current impasse?
Algeria has been without an ambassador in France since the withdrawal of Saïd Moussi on July 31, the day after Paris recognized “Moroccan sovereignty” over Western Sahara.
In mid-November, another event further complicated relations between the two capitals with the imprisonment in Algeria of the writer Boualem Sansal, newly naturalized French.
The deterioration of the bilateral relationship owes much to the continued pressure from the right and the far-right to get President Emmanuel Macron to turn away from his historic reconciliation project with Algeria.
Will things change with François Bayrou Prime Minister?
In France, foreign policy is the responsibility of the President of the Republic, but the convictions of the Prime Minister and members of his government can at least influence public debate.
The outgoing government has not contributed to appeasement. Barely appointed, the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, who had worked as a senator for the abrogation of the 1968 agreement on immigration, attacked Algeria head-on to which he promised an “arm of iron” on the question of returning illegal immigrants to the borders.
Retailleau further poisoned the atmosphere between the two countries, provoking a direct reaction from Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune who ruled on October 5 that the 1968 agreement had become “the standard behind which the army of extremists marches” in France.
France – Algeria: what the appointment of François Bayrou can bring
François Bayrou is neither from the right nor from the extreme right and he is not known to have the slightest deviation towards Algeria during his long political career. At best, he won’t add fuel to the fire. At worst, it will maintain the status quo.
During the offensive, in June 2023, of the extremist movement against the 1968 agreement, François Bayrou wisely explained that this will not resolve the very complex migration problem. He criticized the focus of the right and the far right on the 1968 agreement.
“If you focus this whole question on Algeria, in my opinion, you are wrong,” declared François Bayrou, who is not liked by either the right or the far right. Twice during the presidential elections of 2017 and 2022, he lined up behind Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen. In 2012, he did not support Nicolas Sarkozy against François Hollande.
He is one of the rare French politicians who has publicly taken a position contrary to that of the right and the extreme on this issue.
We will nevertheless have to wait for the component of his government, and in particular to know the holders of the Foreign Affairs and Interior portfolios, to see more clearly.
In the meantime, his appointment is greeted with a certain optimism by those who recognize Bayrou as a moderate and a man of dialogue, but no one has any illusions about Bayrou’s ability to improve a completely dilapidated relationship.
“Relationships have become banal”
“The inauguration of a new French prime minister can be an opportunity to see a change in approach to French relations,” Djilali Soufiane told TSA.
“The two countries have intersecting interests and should place their relations in a rational perspective,” believes the president of Jil Jadid who nevertheless fears the harmful action of anti-Algerian lobbies which are currently “very active” in France.
“Let us hope that Mr. Bayrou, known to be moderate and capable of dialogue, can ease tensions and influence current strategies against Algeria,” hopes Djilali Soufiane.
“I don’t think François Bayrou will have the time to look into diplomatic issues and delicate issues like Algeria. He is not the leader of a party strongly represented in the Assembly and as such, he has no relay either in the press or in the institutions. He looks like Macron. Algeria is the file of an entire mandate”, estimates on the other hand a former Algerian diplomat, who points out that almost nothing remains of the Algerian-French relationship, apart from the supply of gas. “Relations between France and Algeria have returned to banality,” he believes.
Karim Zeribi, former MEP, also does not expect a Bayrou effect, knowing that the new French Prime Minister will have other priorities than the France-Algeria relationship, “because he has hot domestic issues”.
“Its first objective will be to try to find ways of appeasement in the National Assembly. And as the right and the extreme right are anti-Algerian, he is not going to venture into this territory which he will leave to the President of the Republic,” analyzes Zeribi.
