Russia
London (awp/afp) – Oil prices rose cautiously on Wednesday, driven by possible additional US sanctions planned against Russia, and before the publication of monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA on production.
Around 10:20 a.m. GMT (11:20 a.m. CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in February, rose 1.01% to $72.92.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in January, gained 1.04%, to $69.30.
The bullish factor is linked to “tougher sanctions against Russian oil trade that the Biden administration would consider” before his departure, report Helge André Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen, analysts at DNB, citing information from Bloomberg.
Russia is the world's second largest oil producer, and is currently using its “shadow fleet” to export its oil by circumventing Western restrictions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine.
The near end of his mandate “gives President Biden the freedom to be more severe” because if the restrictions prove effective, “his government will not have to face the consequences of rising prices”, says M . Evans, although these sanctions are “difficult to enforce”.
Made up of around 600 ships, the Russian “ghost fleet” transports nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, London estimated in July.
Black gold prices have also been fueled by uncertainty in Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Syria is not a strategic country in oil production but the unknowns about “the future of the country and the entire region raise concerns about the supply of crude”, recalls Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The market awaits the monthly report from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) on production this Wednesday and that from the International Energy Agency on Thursday.
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, recalls that “the consensus expects a significant excess oil supply in 2025”, but according to UBS forecasts, crude oil should benefit from the recent extension of OPEC+ cuts and be “almost in equilibrium” on the market.
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