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The fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad was accompanied by the collapse of its military apparatus, largely attributed to a massive Israeli campaign. These strikes, aimed at neutralizing Syrian strategic infrastructure, are redefining not only the balance of power in Syria, but also throughout the Middle East.
A major military offensive
Since the start of 2024, Israel has intensified its strikes on Syrian military installations. According to Al Nahar(edition of December 11, 2024), the Israeli army claims to have destroyed 80% of the Syrian army’s military capabilities, including air bases, weapons depots and anti-aircraft defense systems. These actions were mainly aimed at preventing pro-Iranian militias, present in Syria, from taking control of these infrastructures after the collapse of the Assad regime.
Priority targets included facilities in Deraa, Soueida and near Damascus, where regime forces had concentrated their strategic resources. These strikes also targeted bases used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to deliver weapons and train fighters. Al Joumhouriyat reports that Israeli officials consider the campaign a major strategic success for their country’s security.
The Israeli justification
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified this offensive by the need to protect Israeli borders. In an official statement published in Al Sharq Al-Awsat (December 11, 2024 edition), Netanyahu said: “We acted to neutralize immediate threats to our national security. It was imperative to prevent pro-Iranian militias and other hostile groups from taking control of Syria’s military infrastructure. » Israel insists that this operation was not intended to directly interfere in the Syrian political transition, but only to preserve its security.
These justifications have not prevented international criticism. Russia, which had supported the Assad regime, denounced the strikes as a violation of Syrian sovereignty. Furthermore, Iran has accused Israel of seeking to further weaken its allies in the region, while Tehran is already under significant economic and political pressure.
A strategic impact for the region
The destruction of the Syrian army has major implications for the regional balance. With the collapse of its military capabilities, Syria can no longer act as a counterweight to Israeli forces in the region. This situation leaves a strategic void that other actors seek to fill.
According to Al AkhbarTurkey quickly strengthened its military presence in northern Syria, taking advantage of the weakening of the national army. Likewise, the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are trying to consolidate their control in the east of the country. These dynamics risk further complicating the Syrian transitional government’s efforts to unify and stabilize the territory.
The consequences for Syrian reconstruction
The collapse of the Syrian army also represents an obstacle to the reconstruction of the country. The transitional government led by Mohamed Al-Bashir will have to rely on fragmented security forces, often from local militias or temporary alliances. According to Al Bina’ (edition of December 11, 2024), this fragmentation complicates the fight against still active terrorist groups, such as Daesh, which try to take advantage of the chaos to regain ground.
Furthermore, the reconstruction of military infrastructure will require considerable investments, which the transitional government will not be able to finance alone. The international community could be called upon to contribute, but this aid will likely be conditional on guarantees on governance and the exclusion of radical pro-Iranian factions.
Criticisms of Israeli strategy
While Israel welcomes the results of its offensive, some experts warn of the long-term consequences. Al Sharq Al-Awsat stresses that the destruction of the Syrian army could reinforce Syria’s dependence on foreign powers, such as Turkey or even Russia, to ensure its security. This situation risks amplifying international interference in the region, to the detriment of Syrian sovereignty.
Furthermore, the international community remains divided on the legitimacy of Israeli intervention. The United Nations has expressed concerns about the humanitarian impact of the strikes, which have also caused civilian casualties. According to Al JoumhouriyatEuropean diplomats are calling for an international framework to regulate military interventions in Syria and avoid uncontrolled escalation.
A model for other interventions?
Some analysts see the Israeli offensive as a model for other preemptive military operations. Israel, by adopting a proactive strategy, shows that states can act unilaterally to protect their strategic interests, even in a complex and unstable environment. However, this model raises questions about respect for international law and the limits of military interventions in sovereign states.
Towards a reorganization of Syrian forces
The Syrian transitional government has announced its intention to rebuild a modern and inclusive national army. This new force, according to Al Naharwill be designed to reflect the country’s diversity and prevent the abuses of power that marked the Assad era. However, this ambition remains faced with major logistical, financial and political challenges.
Syria’s acting defense minister said in an interview with Al Bina’ : “The reconstruction of our army is essential to guarantee the security and unity of our country. We call on our international partners to support us in this effort. » Talks with the European Union and the United States are underway to obtain technical and financial assistance, but these discussions are still at an early stage.
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