No respite for the Canadians’ wallets! According to the Food Price Report 2025the grocery basket bill could increase by another 3 to 5% next year, which would bring the annual expenses of a family of two adults and two children to $16,834, an increase of $802 per year. compared to 2024. This is what emerges from this analysis on the cost of food in Canada written each year by the universities of Dalhousie (Nova Scotia), British Columbia, Guelph (Ontario) and Saskatchewan.
Unsurprisingly, it is the price of meat which is expected to see the largest increase (4 to 6%), followed by those of vegetables (3 to 5%) and dairy and bakery products (2 to 4%).
Several factors risk weighing heavily in the balance, in particular the vagaries of the climate, the lack of agricultural labor, the value of our currency, but also the turbulent American president-elect.
Canadian dollar at half mast
Due to its harsh climate, Canada imports a lot of agricultural products. Therefore, if the exchange rate is not favorable to the Canadian dollar, the bill increases. For 2025, experts anticipate that the value of our currency should remain low compared to the US dollar, and this is not good news for our portfolio.
Unpredictable weather
The report also recalls that last year, the price of cocoa increased due to unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa, and that the price of orange juice increased sharply in the spring due to floods and drought in Brazil.
It’s a safe bet that we’ll still have to deal with the whims of Mother Nature this coming year. In 2025, La Niña is expected to bring below-normal temperatures to two-thirds of the country, and eastern Canada is forecast to experience heavy precipitation. These climatic variations will have an impact on crops and harvests, and ultimately, on the price of food.
The return of Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s policies could significantly harm the stability of the Canadian agri-food sector. During his last campaign, the next president committed to reducing costs for American farmers and boosting competitiveness.
For its part, Canada faces a constant increase in its agricultural costs, with the wholesale price of food having increased almost 40% more than in the United States. This puts Canadian producers at a disadvantage and complicates their ability to compete.
This gap will likely continue to widen with a second Trump administration, and the decline could worsen, since the latter has promised to eliminate many environmental regulations, which would further benefit American farmers.
Result: as the Canadian agri-food sector becomes less and less competitive, grocers could turn more towards foreign products, which would have an impact on the bill paid by consumers given the weakness of our dollar, analyze the experts in the report .
This is without taking into account the uncertainty regarding customs duties on products coming from Canada (announced rate of 25%), with a possible response from our government on American imports. Add to all this the renegotiation of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and the grocery bill is likely to rise again.
Labor scarcity
Finally, the scarcity of labor in the agricultural sector is also a factor to take into consideration. According to the report, the industry-wide shortage could impact prices in the future because fewer crops would be harvested and fewer poultry and meats would be processed.
But that’s not all, because this sector must call on foreign labor to meet its needs. However, imposing a cap on temporary foreign workers could widen the labor deficit and also contribute to rising food prices.
In short, if you can, make some reservations or take advantage of promotions when they pass!
Also read: Tips for eating well, inexpensively and without wasting
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