Three soldiers wave the Israeli flag on the rocky, snow-strewn peaks of Mount Hermon. Shortly after the announcement of the fall of Bashar Al Assad, Sunday December 8, the Israeli army seized without resistance the Syrian side of this mountain located straddling Israel, Syria and Lebanon, as well as the area demilitarized which acts as a buffer with Syria.
“We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our borders”said Benjamin Netanyahu in a statement where he underlined that the disengagement agreement concluded in 1974 with Syria had been “collapsed” with the fall of the regime: “The Syrian army has abandoned its positions. »
On the part of Israel, “this is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found”supported the Prime Minister, traveling to the Golan, a Syrian territory unilaterally annexed by the Jewish state in 1967.
An “opportunity” for Israel
In the process, the Israeli army imposed a curfew on the inhabitants of five Syrian localities located in the buffer zone that it now occupies. She banned access to certain agricultural areas on the Israeli side, and asked schools in border areas to organize distance learning on Sunday.
In Jerusalem, we see that the consequences of the attack of October 7, 2023 continue to move the tectonic plates of an increasingly complex Middle East undermined by the interests of regional powers. “This collapse is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters”welcomed Benyamin Netanyahu who sees in this “historical moment”a ” opportunity “.
“The current situation could serve Israeli interests and lead to the removal of Iranian influence in Syria and the prevention of the rehabilitation capabilities of the Hezbollah in Lebanon, explains Carmit Valensi, researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and specialist in Syria. In other words, the fall of Assad could separate Syria from the “axis of resistance” (which brings together armed groups around Iran united in their opposition to Israel, Editor’s note) and undermine it even further. »
An indefinite Israeli presence
While the Damascus regime has always wanted to recover the Golan Heights, Israel wants to try to anticipate the positions of the Syrian rebels. The leader of the Hayat Tahrir Al Cham group, Ahmad Al Charaa, took his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad Al Jolani, in reference to his family origins in the Golan Heights.
“The rebels’ military capabilities, despite their nuances, are not comparable to those of Iran and its affiliates”believes Carmit Valensi. For her, in addition to preparations on the northern border, Israel should “deepen the dialogue” with the various Syrian actors in order to “better understand and perhaps even influence Syria’s future, this time in a way that benefits Israeli interests.”
Undetermined, the duration of the Israeli presence in the buffer zone and on Syrian territory suggests the possibility of a longer-term occupation. “As in Lebanon and Gaza, this is happening while the states are bankrupt, and under the cover of security reasons, notes Mairav Zonszein, Israeli analyst at Crisis Group. Their temporary nature is unclear. No one in Israel then asks for them to stop. »
