The Ukrainian leader does not rule out a temporary loss of control over Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, against guarantees of protection from NATO. But he hopes to “recover” them through “diplomatic channels”.
A notable and unprecedented statement, almost three years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In an interview with Sky News on Friday, November 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was open to the possibility of a ceasefire and a temporary loss of control over territories occupied by Russia, several conditions. “We must place the Ukrainian territory that we control under the NATO umbrella” Then “to recover” regions of Ukraine occupied by Moscow “through diplomatic channels”, defended the warring leader.
As Sky News points out, such comments on the occupied territories are a first since the beginning of the conflict. Ten days earlier, Volodymyr Zelensky admitted to Fox News: “We do not yet have sufficient forces to push Putin back, arms in hand, to the 1991 borders.” “Crimea can be retaken diplomatically”he added. In the speeches of the Ukrainian head of state, the prospect of negotiations with Moscow is not new, “but it was even clearer [à ce sujet] in recent weeks”, analyzes Marie Dumoulin, director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR).
“Until now, the discourse was to say that the objective was to regain control of the 1991 borders, including Crimea and Donbass.”
Marie Dumoulin, from the European Council on International Relationsat franceinfo
How can we understand these latest statements? For the researchers interviewed by franceinfo, the upcoming return to power of Donald Trump in Washington plays a big role, like the difficulties on the front and an exhaustion which is gaining ground among the population. “We are on an increasingly explicit message, undoubtedly to prepare society for the inevitable compromise,” pointe the analyst Ulrich Bounat, author of Hybrid War in Ukraine: what are the prospects?
The specialist is convinced: from 2025, “The Trump administration will force the Ukrainians to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.” In mid-November, ten days after the election of the republican and populist candidate, Volodymyr Zelensky claimed to be “certain that the war will end[it] earlier” with the new American management team. “This is their approach, their promise to society”he told the Ukrainian media Suspilne.
Fervent defender of “America first”Donald Trump strongly criticized the extent of American military aid provided to Ukraine. The former president, who will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, promised to find a way out of the war “in 24 hours” – without however specifying the contours of his promise. “What is in America's interest is to accept that Ukraine will have to cede certain territories to the Russians.” underlined at the same time his running mate, JD Vance, in December 2023, in an interview with Fox News.
General Keith Kellogg, a loyalist appointed by Donald Trump as envoy for Russia and Ukraine, outlined possible avenues in response to the conflict in the spring. In a report for the very conservative think tank America First Policy Institute, he defends the research of“a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement in Ukraine”. “The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defense, to ensure that Russia will no longer advance or attack after a ceasefire or peace agreement,” he offers, however under conditions.
“For any future U.S. military aid, Ukraine will need to participate in peace talks with Russia.”
Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump's future envoy for Ukraine and Russiain a report
kyiv, as a result, is worried about a loss of crucial American aid and inevitable territorial concessions to Moscow. While waiting for the next Republican administration, “Volodymyr Zelensky's speech seeks to set the framework, to explain what the Ukrainians could accept as a type of agreement”, underlines Marie Dumoulin. For the Ukrainian president, the “the only real guarantee of security” is the membership “full and complete” to NATO, as he said again on Tuesday. An attempt to arrive as much as possible in a position of strength at the negotiating table, at a time when Western support is less of a given than in 2022. “What senior U.S. and European officials are not saying publicly is that there is a quiet but growing consensus that negotiations … are the only way to end this war”, observes researcher Rym Montaz, from the Carnegie Europe research center.
The Twenty-Seven are also divided on the continuation of their support. “A sense of urgency prevails” in Poland, in the Nordic or Baltic countries facing the Russian threat, “so they are very reluctant to consider negotiations without Ukraine's strong position”, analyzes Marie Dumoulin. In Germany, the social democratic chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is rather “between two chairs” in the run-up to legislative elections. “He tends to echo a speech on the need for negotiations at some point, without being on the line of ceding everything to Russia.” In mid-November, the German leader spoke by telephone with Vladimir Putin, a first in two years. “Russia cannot dictate peace to Ukraine”, however, he assured Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, visiting kyiv.
Volodymyr Zelensky's recent comments are also a response to “the reality on the ground”, particularly in “lack of men” along the front line, notes Ulrich Bounat. Ukrainian authorities say they need at least 160,000 additional troops, but the Biden administration considers the estimate too low, reports Associated Press. According to information from the agency, Washington even aspires to see kyiv lower the age of mobilization, from 25 to just 18. A request at a time when kyiv and Moscow are sinking into “a war of attrition”with Russian forces “on the offensive” and marking “a slow and laborious progression” at the cost of heavy losses, notes Ulrich Bounat.
“In terms of square kilometers, Russian advances in recent months have been the fastest since 2022. However, they are not lightning, they do not upset the balance of forces.”
Ulrich Bounat, specialist in the war in Ukraineat franceinfo
Until November, the New York Times noted that Russian forces had captured at least ten villages in approximately ten days and that they were closing in on two strategic towns in the Donetsk region, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. The last, specifies the American daily, is an important logistical point for the Ukrainian army. At the same time, kyiv fears the preparation of a new Russian offensive in the Zaporizhia region, towards the south of Ukraine. Despite Ukrainian breakthroughs in Russia's Kursk region, “the situation [actuelle] is the most difficult we have experienced in almost three years of war”, agreed with the newspaper Ukrainska Pravda le commandant Andrii Biletskyi.
To this is added “a great fatigue of Ukrainian society”, traumatized and weakened by the conflict, continues Carole Grimaud, professor of geopolitics of Russia at the Paul-Valéry University of Montpellier. Even more as a new winter approaches “with even less energy capacity” and which promises to be the most difficult since the beginning of the war. This year, almost half of Ukrainians have had difficulty finding food or housing, according to an opinion poll conducted by Gallup. Unsurprisingly, more of them today say they are in favor of a negotiated peace. For the first time in almost three years, a narrow majority of Ukrainians – 52% – defend this outcome rather than continued fighting, again according to Gallup.
Among this thin pro-negotiation majority, a little more than half believe that kyiv should be open to ceding some of its territories for peace. A minority, therefore, compared to all those surveyed. As for joining NATO, 84% of Ukrainians are still in favor, notes Euronews. “On the side of Russian society, they too are in favor of negotiations. This war is part of their daily life now,” adds Carole Grimaud. A recent survey conducted by Russian Field shows that 53% of Russians surveyed favor “a transition to peace talks”. “Unfortunately, I don't feel that [le pouvoir à] Moscow wants to negotiate”, concludes the Russia specialist.
