Between Marine Le Pen and Michel Barnier, the understanding had started well. If the Prime Minister has always been “under surveillance”, at the beginning of October, after his general policy speech, the leader of the RN deputies praised his “fairly innate sense of courtesy” and spoke of his “spirit of openness”. This Wednesday, December 4, the Rally nevertheless mixed its voices with the New Popular Front on their motion of censure to overthrow its government.
What happened? Marine Le Pen felt that there were too few exchanges with the Prime Minister. “As soon as he was appointed, our teams should have gotten closer,” complains the member of Parliament for Pas-de-Calais to Le Parisien. Michel Barnier still invited him to Matignon on Monday November 25. On leaving, Marine Le Pen believes that he remained “stuck in his positions”. She repeated her “red lines” to him. Namely, the increase in the tax on electricity, the de-indexation of pensions, even reduced by half, and the de-reimbursement of medicines. At the same time, she called for “clear savings” on immigration and the functioning of the State.
A few days later, in an interview with Le Figaro, Michel Barnier renounced the increase in the electricity tax. A first victory for Marine Le Pen, but also for the left. On Monday, December 2, the Savoyard called him to announce that he was also renouncing the reimbursement of medication. A second victory for Marine Le Pen, for which she is credited by the Matignon press release. The “natural” candidate of the RN abounds, it is now the deindexation of pensions or censorship. This time, Michel Barnier does not give in. “She tried to enter into a sort of one-upmanship,” he denounces, the day before his fall on TF1 and France 2.
The possibility of being convicted “influenced her strategy”
How did we go from a Marine Le Pen who plays the “tie” strategy to a Marine Le Pen who is so intransigent? “The indictment undoubtedly influenced his strategy,” assures Luc Gras, political scientist. “The possibility of a conviction with immediate effect preventing him from running in the presidential election forced him to accelerate his timetable,” he continues. Marine Le Pen is implicated in the trial of “parliamentary assistants of the National Front”. In mid-November, the prosecution requested five years in prison against him, three of which were suspended, a fine of 300,000 euros and five years of ineligibility with provisional execution. Which could, if the judges follow the prosecutors, prevent him from running in 2027. The judgment is expected in the first quarter of 2025.
There are other reasons for Erwan Lecoeur, teacher-researcher at the University of Grenoble Alpes. “To be in agreement with its electorate who supported censorship of Michel Barnier and to regain control over Jordan Bardella,” he indicates. “Jordan Bardella is getting back to health with the release of her book even though she might not be able to run for president. Hypothesis that Bardella himself insinuated. She had no choice, she had to resolve the matter internally and not appear soft,” says the political scientist.
Marine Le Pen is aiming for an early presidential election?
Bring down Michel Barnier to precipitate the presidential election? The hypothesis is mentioned. Should Emmanuel Macron still resign, which he has always said he refuses? Something that Marine Le Pen is not asking for. However, she warns: “There will come a time when, if we do not take the path of respect for voters and elections, then the pressure on the President of the Republic will be increasingly strong.” For Luc Gras, “the early presidential election is indeed Marine Le Pen’s strategy”. The political scientist assures: “If it is denied by the National Rally, it is assumed by La France Insoumise”.
Erwan Lecoeur agrees: “Marine Le Pen must not be seen as the one who creates chaos. She prefers to let La France Insoumise push for the resignation of the president.” For the teacher-researcher, this scenario would only benefit two people: Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Today, they are the only ones who would be ready to embark on a campaign. “And in the end, it is the president of the National Rally who would win,” he says.
“The strategy of the National Rally is quite clever”
On the contrary, Luc Rouban, author of the book “The hidden springs of the RN vote”, sees other reasons in the choice of the National Rally to censor Michel Barnier. “I was struck by Marine Le Pen’s words in the National Assembly before the vote on the motion of censure. It was a very liberal speech that could have been made by a Republican elected official,” says the CNRS research director. For him, the strategy is ultimately quite coherent. “Their goal is to become the new big right-wing party. The budget was open to criticism because it was too wasteful and included too many tax burdens for businesses,” underlines the man who also works at Cevipof.
For Luc Rouban “the strategy of the National Rally is quite clever”. That is to say “promoting businesses, but also helping the poorest and most modest”. The line of the “social right” of Philippe Séguin. And added: “Basically, the National Rally has abandoned the idea of breaking with the traditional right. Which may appeal to the middle and upper classes.”
Luc Rouban certifies this: “The National Rally has not given up on demonization”. Last night, on TF1, Marine Le Pen almost even apologized for having had to vote for the motion of censure. “I don’t consider it a victory,” she assured, while trying to put this vote into perspective. The member for Pas de Calais asked “that we stop scaring the French. Obviously the income tax will be indexed to inflation, obviously the continuity of the life of the nation will be ensured. All the doom and gloom we’ve been hearing for two days is going to age badly.”
She also said she would “let the next Prime Minister work”. And added: “We are going to co-construct, not only with the National Rally, but with all the forces present in the National Assembly, a budget which is acceptable to all, and it is this budget which will apply to the French. For his part, during a signing session of his book, Jordan Bardella indicated that “we need a Prime Minister capable of admitting that we have the first political group in the Assembly”.
Which head of government are they ready to accept? On the RN side, two names seem to be coming back: Sébastien Lecornu, the resigning Minister of the Armed Forces, and François Bayrou, the boss of the MoDem. Neither of these two prime ministers made any contemptuous remarks when they met. Qualities which were also attributed to Michel Barnier at the beginning of October. Guest of the Public Senate morning, Laurent Jacobelli, spokesperson for the RN assures that “if Emmanuel Macron appoints a Prime Minister who appoints a single left-handed minister, the government will jump”.
The risks for the RN
After this censorship, however, several risks exist for the National Rally. This Thursday, November 5, a Cluster 17 survey for Le Point indicates that she is taking part of her electorate “against the grain”. 31% of its voters say they are worried and 12% angry. On the other hand, 26% say they are satisfied. “We therefore perceive an electorate almost split in two on the feelings experienced in the face of the fall of the government,” concludes the polling institute.
Another risk for the National Rally: a restructuring of the balance. Boris Vallaud, leader of the socialist deputies, asks the “common base” to open up to the left. Yanick Jadot, environmentalist senator and former presidential candidate, calls for a “transitional republican pact between the left and the central bloc”. For his part, Gabriel Attal proposes a “non-censorship agreement from LR to the PS”. This Thursday, December 5, in a column in Le Monde, the socialist deputy and former minister Aurélien Rousseau and the socialist MEPs Raphaël Gluscksmann and Aurore Lalucq invite “the political forces of the republican front” to meet after the government’s censorship in order to “define the possible convergences. So many threats for the National Rally which could find itself isolated, with less possibility of pressure on the next government.
