REHABILITATION – Guessing should take less time than usual. Maybe even less than a day. Before addressing the French this Thursday, December 5 at 8 p.m., Emmanuel Macron will have received the resignation of his Prime Minister, overthrown the day before by a motion of censure. And several close to the head of state are putting forward the idea that the name of Michel Barnier’s successor will be known before this speech.
Michel Barnier censored, behind the scenes of a historic day at the National Assembly – REPORT
This would be a major change in the presidential approach, which has always stretched the suspense to name its five heads of government. Who will be the sixth, the fourth in office in 2024? Here are some profiles of contenders.
Bertrand, Baroin, Retailleau, the Barniers bis
The first names refer to the right of the political spectrum in the same camp as Michel Barnier. Xavier Bertrand who was anticipated before the appointment of the Savoyard is mentioned again as is François Baroin, the mayor of Troyes whose name comes up at regular intervals (The Parisian revealed this Wednesday) while he distanced himself from national politics. Bombarded Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau is also a candidate even if he has, like the other names mentioned, the disadvantage of having the same censorable profile as the ephemeral Prime Minister.
Bayrou, Lecornu, the faithful
Despite the failure of his people in the early legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron never gave up the idea of leaving power to his camp. The Macronists were also the most represented in the government which had just been overthrown and they are a central force in the Assembly. Two names with different CVs are regularly the subject of discussion: François Bayrou, the President’s first ally and Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister of the Armed Forces whose rise has been constant in Macronie since 2017. Question however for them, and for Jean Castex of which Politico cites the name this Thursday: are they able to attract a part of the left to solidify the famous common base which was too narrow to make Michel Barnier last? This would be the main asset of Roland Lescure, historic walker, former Minister of Industry and supporter of the so-called “left wing” of Macronie.
-Cazeneuve, Castets, the real opening on the left
What if, five months later, Emmanuel Macron followed the results of the legislative elections? In July, he quickly closed the door to a nomination of Lucie Castets, then candidate of the New Popular Front for Matignon, on the pretext that she would quickly be censored. This scenario remains credible especially since she no longer even fills up on the left, the PS having distanced itself from her. The Socialists are also not enthusiastic about the idea of a government led by Bernard Cazeneuve but the former Prime Minister has experience on his side.
Also see on The HuffPost:
“The Economist” makes its front page on the political situation in France, and it is explicit to say the least
Why Emmanuel Macron should not appoint a left-wing Prime Minister in the event of censorship of Michel Barnier
