A 2.2% increase in pensions in sight? This is the scenario that emerges if one of the motions of censure tabled against the Barnier government is adopted. A look back at a tense political and budgetary situation which could change the fate of retirees.
On Wednesday December 4, 2024, the National Assembly debates two motions of censure which could overthrow the government of Michel Barnier. At stake: the adoption of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) for 2025, a text which includes controversial measures on pensions. Among them, a partial deindexation of pensions, limiting their revaluation to 0.8% in January and a deferred increase for small retirees. If the government falls, the PLFSS could be abandoned, leaving room for an automatic revaluation of pensions based on inflation, estimated at 2,2 %.
Deindexation of pensions under fire from critics
The PLFSS 2025, adopted in part via article 49.3 of the Constitution, provided for a limited increase in pensions in two stages:
- +0.8% from January 2025 for all retirees.
- A second increase of +0.8% in July 2025reserved for pensions below 1,500 euros gross monthly.
This deindexation of pensions, supposed to allow the government to save nearly 3.5 billion euros, arouses strong opposition. The National Rally (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI) immediately reacted by each filing a motion of censure. Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN, described this measure as “disguised taxation of retirees”.
Towards a revaluation modeled on inflation?
In the event of censorship, and therefore abandonment of the PLFSS, the current rules of the Social Security Code would apply. According to François Ecalle, public finance specialist, this would mean a revaluation based on annual inflation measured between November 2023 and October 2024, estimated at 2.2% excluding tobacco.
The concrete implications:
- An average pension of 1,500 euros gross would benefit from a monthly increase of 33 eurosagainst only 12 euros with the PLFSS.
- For a retiree earning 2,800 euros gross, this would represent an additional annual gain of 672 euros.
However, the absence of PLFSS would complicate budgetary management, and some experts call for caution in the face of the institutional consequences of such a scenario.
Faced with this uncertainty, retirees did not wait for the parliamentary verdict to make themselves heard. Nine trade union organizations, including the CGT and Solidaires, organized a national day of mobilization on December 3, 2024. Their demand: an immediate revaluation of pensions in line with inflation and a recovery of losses accumulated since 2017.
As a reminder, since 2017, pensions have only increased by 13,6 %while cumulative inflation reached 19,5 %. “This discrepancy weighs heavily on the purchasing power of retirees, particularly those with modest incomes,” underlines Dominique Libault, president of the High Council for the Financing of Social Protection.
Possible scenarios after the vote
- Adoption of a motion of censure : The government would be overthrown, and pensions would be automatically increased to 2.2% on January 1, 2025.
- Maintaining the government : The PLFSS, including the deindexation of pensions, would come into force, with an increase limited to 0.8%.
- Institutional blockage : Without a clear majority, the country could experience delays in adopting a 2025 budget, opening the way to temporary solutions.
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