For his part, President Emmanuel Macron also called yesterday for “stability“and to the “responsibility” from everyone but there is very little chance that he will be listened to.
Double opposition on the left and the far right
The oppositions are indeed determined to censor the government. Rather twice than once: the New Popular Front (NFP, alliance of the left) tabled a motion of censure… and the National Rally (RN, far right) too. They will be examined and put to the vote of deputies this December 4 from 4 p.m. Barring a final twist, they should be adopted because if we add up the votes of the deputies from both camps, we come close to 320 ballots, without even counting those of the Ciottists of the UDR, allies of the RN. That’s far more than the 289 votes needed to bring down the government. The only possible twist: the far-right party could, who knows, decide at the last minute not to vote for the motion put forward by the left, given the unflattering terms it contains (the motion evokes “the vilest obsessions” of the RN). A strategy that is difficult to understand, but which would allow Marine Le Pen to censor the government, without bringing it down. And therefore to get away with it by playing respectability, in a final lying poker move.
Michel Barnier triggers 49.3: a very high-risk maneuver
Note that seven socialist deputies refused to sign the left’s motion of censure (even if they will probably vote for it), and that the Liot group (center-left non-member of the NFP), often decisive during sensitive votes, has chosen not to be associated with this initiative. Bertrand Pancher, president of the group, explained: “This text goes too far and falls into a political posture”.
Post-Barnier?
Behind the scenes, Emmanuel Macron is already anticipating the post-Barnier era. According to sources close to the Élysée, the president would study several profiles for the post of Prime Minister, in the event that the motion of censure is adopted. Among the names mentioned are those of Sébastien Lecornu, current Minister of the Armed Forces, or the centrist François Bayrou, who has had his eye on Matignon for decades. The left still dreams of seeing its muse Lucie Castets appointed head of government. Beyond the chosen personality, doubts remain about anyone’s ability to govern without a majority and in the face of an Assembly divided into three irreconcilable blocs.
If the motion fails, Michel Barnier could try to relaunch his project around new priorities and consolidate the “common base” made up of centrists and right-wing moderates, torn apart by incessant internal bickering. But if it is passed, the 2025 budgets of the State and Social Security cannot be adopted, which will have very concrete consequences for the purchasing power of the French (this has already happened twice, in 1962 and 1979). Emmanuel Macron will have to resolve to a major reshuffle to restore political stability, in the absence of a dissolution of the National Assembly which remains excluded before June 2025 according to the constitutional calendar.
French government: 49.3 imminent, the RN very close to censorship despite Barnier’s actions
Michel Barnier would then become the most ephemeral head of government of the Fifth Republic (90 days), beating Bernard Cazeneuve (François Hollande’s Prime Minister for 155 days, from December 2016 to May 2017) in this record. His lightning ousting would confirm a notorious trend under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron: the duration of the mandates of his various Prime Ministers has continued to shorten since 2017. And to think that, there was a time not so long ago, the President of the Republic saw himself in master of clocks…
