LIVE – Motions of censure against the Barnier government will be debated on Wednesday at 4 p.m.

End of reign atmosphere the day after the triggering of 49.3 to adopt the Social Security budget: threatened by a motion of censure, Michel Barnier's coalition calls for responsibility so as not to bring down the government and avoid “chaos” political and budgetary. The session of questions to the government scheduled for the afternoon in the Assembly promises to be tense, while the deputies will be called upon during the week to decide on a motion of censure which has every chance of being approved, the left and the National Rally having announced that they would vote for it.

“The fall of Barnier is recorded”

Last stand or final attempt to avoid the fall? Tuesday evening, the suspended Prime Minister was invited to 8 p.m. on TF1 and France 2, where he will answer questions from Anne-Sophie Lapix and Gilles Bouleau live from Matignon, the two channels announced. “The fall of Barnier is confirmed,” proclaimed the leader of the rebellious deputies Mathilde Panot. Appointed on September 5, he will have lasted three months thanks to the “support without participation of the RN” and, “what will bring him down is precisely that the RN will have stopped supporting him”, underlined the PS deputy Arthur Delaporte.

On Monday, the Prime Minister unsurprisingly took responsibility for his government on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), ensuring that he had been “at the end of the dialogue” with political groups, including the National Rally.

Motions of censure against the Barnier government debated on Wednesday

The debate followed by a vote on the motions of censure tabled by the left and the National Rally against the government of Michel Barnier will take place on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m., we learned on Tuesday from parliamentary sources.

The motion of censure tabled by the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front has every chance of being adopted since the RN has announced its support. The text presented by Marine Le Pen's party should conversely not be supported by the NFP. These motions come after Michel Barnier held his government accountable on Monday for the draft budget for Social Security by triggering article 49.3 of the Constitution.

The actions announced by Barnier will not have been enough

The gestures announced by Michel Barnier to meet the demands of the flame party – in particular on the reimbursement of medicines – will not, however, have been enough: “Censoring this budget is, unfortunately, the only way the Constitution gives us to protect the French of a dangerous, unjust and punitive budget”, Marine Le Pen justified on Tuesday on X.

Voting for censorship, “it’s our duty,” confirmed Tuesday one of his main lieutenants, MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy on Europe1-Cnews. “We are not going to entrust any more of France’s purse strings to people who are incapable.”

Tuesday morning, ministers took turns on radio and television to raise the risk of “chaos”. “It is the country that we are putting in danger,” worried the Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand. “Do we really want chaos? Do we want an economic crisis which will affect the most vulnerable?”, launched the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau on TF1. The powerful tenant of Beauvau even made “the bet that with Michel Barnier, we will manage to dismiss the motion of censure”.

But nothing is less certain. In the morning, the conference of presidents of the National Assembly should in all likelihood decide on the date – probably Wednesday or Thursday – of the debate and vote on the motions of censure tabled by the New Popular Front and the National Rally.

Barnier's government could become the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic

The adoption by the National Assembly of such a motion would be a first since the overthrow of the government of Georges Pompidou in 1962. The Barnier government would then become the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic.

To bring down the government, 288 deputies will have to vote for censure

To bring down the government, 288 deputies will have to vote for censure, a number well within the reach of an alliance of circumstances between the left and the RN. If the executive falls, France would sink further into the political crisis created by Emmanuel Macron's dissolution of the National Assembly in June. On the financial markets, the interest rates at which France borrows have tightened in the face of uncertainties over the government and the country's ability to reduce deficits.

The Élysée made no comment on the new political situation, while Emmanuel Macron landed in Riyadh on Monday for a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia. But it is the head of state who will quickly have control because, if the scenario of censorship is confirmed, he will have to appoint a new Prime Minister.

The Senate continues to debate the state budget on Tuesday

On the left, we reject the lawsuit as irresponsibility. “Let's not say that if this motion of censure is passed, everything will collapse: it is if it is not voted that it will continue,” said the head of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier on franceinfo, pointing to a budget which “ would have absolutely deleterious consequences on the daily life of the French. “It is the Popular Front in the government and the Republican Front in the Assembly. This is how we can progress,” defended the first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure on BFMTV-RMC, recalling that his party called for the search for “compromise text by text” on the basis of a “left project” in a completely fractured Assembly.

In the meantime, the Senate continues to debate the state budget on Tuesday – a text on which the use of 49.3 also seemed inevitable anyway. And a joint committee (CMP), bringing together seven deputies and seven senators, must examine the “end of management” budget for 2024, which allows the government to set final budgetary adjustments for the current year.