Gold prices experienced a slight increase this Tuesday morning, supported by geopolitical and economic factors. Despite this dynamic, the potential for progress seems limited due to the moderate strength of the US dollar and expectations surrounding the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Security demand supports gold prices
Concerns over trade policies announced by US President-elect Donald Trump are reigniting fears of global trade wars. These tensions encourage investors to favor gold, considered a safe haven asset. At the same time, US bond yields are stagnating at historically low levels, reinforcing the appeal of the precious metal.
Also read: What are the gold price forecasts for the end of the year?
The influence of Fed decisions on the market
Markets remain attentive to signals from the Fed, while the CME Group's FedWatch tool estimates a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut in key rates at the next meeting. This outlook limits bullish movements in gold, with the US dollar regaining some ground after rebounding from multi-month lows.
Furthermore, US economic data expected this week, notably the employment report (NFP) on Friday, could enlighten investors on the future trajectory of US monetary policy. The speech by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, is also eagerly awaited.
A tricky technical setup for gold
From a technical perspective, the price of gold broke an ascending channel at the start of the week, a bearish signal for traders. However, the recovery observed from the $2,620 zone raises reservations before any new positions are taken.
- Key resistance : The $2,650 zone remains a defining level, with an additional obstacle at $2,666.
- Immediate support : The $2,600 threshold could play a protective role against a more marked correction, while a decline below $2,577 could open the way towards November levels, around $2,537.
The relative strength of the dollar today
A look at the movements of the US dollar against major currencies reveals an uneven performance. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese yen (+0.30%) but posted marginal losses against the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. These movements reflect a global context where the American economy continues to exert a notable influence on global markets.
| Devise | Variation (%) against the USD |
|---|---|
| JPY | +0,30 % |
| EUR | +0,10 % |
| GBP | +0,01 % |
| CHF | -0,19 % |
The gold market remains suspended between the pressures exerted by a strengthening dollar and the persistent uncertainty linked to American trade and monetary policy. The next few days promise to be crucial, with key economic data likely to redefine trends.
