Majority, coalition, Prime Minister: what will happen after the second round of legislative elections?

Majority, coalition, Prime Minister: what will happen after the second round of legislative elections?
Majority, coalition, Prime Minister: what will happen after the second round of legislative elections?

And now what will happen? Following the second round of legislative elections this Sunday, July 7the New Popular Front won the most seats in the National Assembly, ahead of the presidential coalition and the RN and its allies.

Forces in presence

In the absence of an absolute majority set at 289 deputies, none of the three blocs is able to govern alone. According to the latest results communicated this Monday morning, on the website of the Ministry of the Interior, here is the distribution of seats:

  • The New Popular Front: 178 seats
  • Together!, the presidential coalition: 150 seats
  • The National Rally and its allies: 143 seats
  • Republicans get: 39 seats
  • Miscellaneous right: 27 seats
  • Miscellaneous left: 12 seats
  • Regionalist: 9 seats
  • Horizons: 6 seats
  • Various center: 6 seats
  • Others: 7

Ces results are still considered provisionalsubject to possible corrections and decisions by the election judge.

Coalition possible ?

If it remains far from the absolute majority to be able to pass bills without having support, the left-wing alliance can become essential at the Palais Bourbon. With the relative majority, the vote on legal texts must in fact be done with the support of other political camps.

The Macronists Will they turn to the left, which has already claimed the head of government and which they have not stopped attacking during the European campaigns and the first round of the legislative elections? Or will they try to form a coalition with allies from the LR to the various left?

The presidential camp will present “preconditions for any discussion” with a view to a majority, warned Renaissance boss Stéphane Séjourné on Sunday, citing secularism, European construction and support for Ukraine, and concluding that “Jean-Luc Mélenchon and a certain number of his allies cannot govern France”.

The President of Horizons Edouard Philippe He also called on political forces to “promote the creation of an agreement” without the National Rally or France Insoumise.

The addition of Republicans (LR) seems insufficient to reach the absolute majority, especially since Laurent Wauquiezback in the Assembly, closed the door on Sunday evening: “For us, there will be neither coalition nor compromise”.

The question of the attitude of left-wing MPs arises in the background. “It is clearly positive in terms of dynamics but there are a certain number of uncertainties. Is there a domination of LFI? Is there a rebalancing with the socialists? Who will want to govern, and on what program?”analyzes Christelle Craplet (BVA).

“The NFP has won relatively because it is in the lead, but with two thirds of the Assembly on the right, the left will always be far away,” judges political scientist Luc Rouban. “The only solution would be a PS-eco-Macronist coalition, but I don’t see why they would be supported by the right, and LFI would cry social traitors”he assures.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has decided. Refusing “to enter into negotiations” with the presidential party, the rebellious leader believes that Emmanuel Macron has “the duty to call on the new Popular Front to govern”.

“Moving forward together requires democracy within us” et “There are no external words that will impose themselves on us”replied Olivier Faure, first secretary of the PS, whose deputies appear to be making up some of their delay on LFI without becoming the leading left-wing group.

Which Prime Minister?

“No absolute majority can be led by the extremes,” rejoiced soberly on Sunday Resigning Prime Minister Gabriel Attalpromising to remain in office “as long as duty requires”.

As is customary after legislative elections, Gabriel Attal announced on Sunday evening that he would resign on Monday morning.

“In accordance with the republican tradition”Emmanuel Macron will wait to know the “structuring” of the new Assembly following the legislative elections in order to determine who he will call upon to form a government, the Élysée announced on Sunday evening.

To ensure continuity, the government will remain in place for as long as necessary.

Constitutionally, the President of the Republic is responsible for appointing his Prime Minister. He faces a dilemma: to appoint the leader of the party within the majority or, in the absence of a clear majority, to try to find an alternative option, a coalition bringing together several political parties.

By losing several dozen deputies in the dissolution, can Emmanuel Macron paradoxically benefit from an Assembly divided into three? “We still don’t have a Prime Minister who has emerged, and no real clear opposition either”points out Anne-Charlène Bezzina, constitutionalist at the University of Rouen, who believes that “The key may lie with the President of the Republic, if he calls for calm and clears the way for everyone” including “his group”.

In the event of an institutional blockage, other options are still possible, such as the composition of an interim government or a government of technicians, or even the resignation of the president.

Resignation of Emmanuel Macron?

The head of state has three years left in his term. And Emmanuel Macron said at the end of June in a Letter to the French that he had no intention of leaving the Élysée: “You can trust me until May 2027.”

Which is not the opinion of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. For the leader of France Insoumise, the President of the Republic must “either leave or appoint a Prime Minister” from the New Popular Front.

Same story from the head of the RN Marine Le Pen: the resignation of the head of state “is the only solution to get out of the crisis”.

Election of the President of the Assembly on July 18

If there is no deadline for the appointment of the new Prime Minister, The timetable for action by the next deputies is, however, more precise.

The 17th legislature of the Fifth Republic will open on the second Thursday following the elections, on July 18. On this occasion, the new president of the National Assembly will be elected by the 577 deputies.

An election that could provide the first clues about the balance of power and the games of alliances in the new chamber.

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