Time is running out. There are only a month and a half left before Donald Trump returns to office. Even if he has still not revealed how he intends to go about it, the Republican is committed to putting an end to the conflict in Ukraine “ in twenty-four hours “. In kyiv, Moscow or Brussels, everyone is preparing for this change of era and sharpening their weapons before probable negotiations.
In the team that will be set up in Washington at the end of January 2025, two men will take charge of the Ukrainian file. Mike Waltz, the future national security adviser, and former general Keith Kellogg, named special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. The strategy remains to be defined, but the new US administration is preparing to pressure kyiv and Moscow for a ceasefire that would freeze the front line.
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To achieve his goals, Donald Trump intends to use both sticks and carrots. “Any future US military aid will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia,” wrote Keith Kellogg in a note published at the end of April by the America First Policy Institute (AFPI). To convince Putin to sit at the negotiating table, Ukraine's membership in NATO would be “postponed for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees.”
The plan from former Vice President Mike Pence's national security adviser also calls for “limited sanctions relief” against Russia in exchange for a ceasefire, the creation of a demilitarized zone and his participation in the peace talks.
If Putin proves recalcitrant, Mike Waltz suggests that the United States would use retaliatory measures, such as easing restrictions on long-range missiles or trying to lower the price of oil and gas, whose revenues fuel the Russian war machine.
In the absence of a peace treaty beyond reach, the president-elect will want to quickly obtain a “deal” that gives him the appearance of a peacemaker. “ Trump wants to be able to say he stopped the war and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. The modalities of implementing a cessation of fighting do not matter to him, says John Sipher, former CIA clandestine service agent and non-resident researcher at the Atlantic Council. Putin will play his game and the negotiations risk leading to a dysfunctional agreement. »
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Vladimir Putin's maximalism
Despite the closeness displayed by Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin is careful not to appear as asking for a negotiation. Russia intends to use the transition period to consolidate its territorial gains, break Ukrainian morale by continuing its attacks on energy infrastructure, threatening to strike kyiv with the new Orechnik hypersonic missile, already used in Dnipro, and deepening the relationship. with North Korea, which sent at least 10,000 troops to Russia.
Vladimir Putin knows he is in a strong position to maintain maximalist conditions for a cessation of hostilities: the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the four regions annexed by Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson), even if the Russian army does not fully controls none of these regions; Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership and its permanent neutrality; the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, not to mention the guarantee of the rights of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions.
According to Russian sources cited by the Reuters agency, there is room for negotiation on the precise sharing of the four regions claimed by Moscow, as well as on a Russian withdrawal of small portions of territory in the regions of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. “Without shying away from time-saving discussions, Putin will never give up on his main goal, [celui de] take Ukraine out of the Western orbit,” explains Piotr Akopov, columnist for the official Russian press agency RIA Novosti.
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After more than a thousand days of high-intensity war, the Ukrainian population is today, according to several opinion surveys, mostly in favor of a negotiated solution to end the war. Short of manpower, the Ukrainian army is resisting in the East and the South, but is struggling to slow down the pace of the Russian progression. Ukrainian troops are working to retain part of the territory in the Kursk region of Russia, captured in early August during a surprise incursion. kyiv wants to use it as a bargaining chip in a future negotiation.
Ukrainian authorities also want to convince Donald Trump that a strong Ukraine would be a profitable economic and geostrategic opportunity for the United States. The idea would notably be to persuade Trump by giving American companies special access to Ukrainian deposits of rare minerals, in particular lithium. Likewise, after the war, Ukrainian troops could replace part of the American troops stationed in Europe if the American administration decided to withdraw them.
Volodymyr Zelensky knows that he will have to accept a loss of territory even if, officially, the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits him from doing so. In an interview with the British channel Sky News on Friday, he opened the door to this possibility: he said he was willing to wait before recovering the areas occupied by the Russian army – almost a fifth of the country – if the territory currently controlled by kyiv is placed under NATO protection.
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The moment of truth for Europeans
In the absence of Ukraine joining NATO, the Europeans could provide a military guarantee to kyiv. Bilateral agreements would provide for the deployment of troops in Ukraine by an ad hoc coalition of willing European countries to secure western and southern Ukraine, ensure compliance with the ceasefire and prevent a new Russian offensive. Discussions are underway at the highest level on this subject between France, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Nordic and Baltic States, with which Ukraine is associated.
The idea is on the table, but the hardest part remains to make it a reality and obtain the support, at least indirectly, from the United States. “Europe is very exposed to the Russian threat,” warns Michael Kimmage, a former member of the Obama administration. If the transatlantic relationship becomes contentious in the first months of the Trump administration – on NATO, trade, technology or climate – Putin will exploit these differences to undermine European cohesion. »
