INTERVIEW. War in Ukraine: “Volodymyr Zelensky is aware that we must move very quickly”, after his ceasefire proposals

La Dépêche du Midi: In an interview with the British channel Sky News, President Zelensky spoke for the first time of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine which could involve territorial concessions, how to interpret this announcement which could pass as one with weakness?

Céline Bayou: “I think that this responds first of all to a question of timing. All this is very linked to the imminent arrival of Donald Trump as American president. Volodymyr Zelensky is aware that we have to move very quickly because he risks losing American support or at least part of this support Although he is unpredictable, Donald Trump has shown, in his various declarations and appointments, that he seems to be considering negotiations. So Zelensky must say. that it is better that he be the first to put the subject on the table rather than suffer from the outside. He seeks to avoid something that would be imposed either by Moscow or by Washington.

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Does this also mean that the situation on the front is becoming more complicated for Ukraine?

Obviously, there is a difficulty on the ground but I want to say that this difficulty is not new. There is a difficulty regarding aid, but it is not new either. What is true, however, is that the countries allied to Ukraine had committed to forming around ten brigades and, in reality, only two and a half have been formed – including one by France. Indeed, he can lower the age of mobilization to 18 years, but if these people are not trained, they will not be of much use.

However, Joe Biden recently gave authorization to his Ukrainian counterpart to use weapons provided by the Americans to strike, including on Russian soil, is that not enough?

This is still good news for Ukraine, but, despite this, I think President Zelensky is realistic. He knows that the situation is complicated and that it risks becoming even more so. There is an undeniable increase in attacks from Russia. Symbolically, the use of the “Orechnik” ballistic missile – used for a strike on November 21, Editor’s note – which, although it undoubtedly caused less damage than other weapons, is still a message of intimidation strong sent to the Ukrainians. Above all, there have been very violent attacks in recent days on energy infrastructure. Winter is starting, it's cold, the population is tired… It's going to be very complicated. Even if we see in the polls that the Ukrainians do not want to give up, Zelensky's objective has always been to protect lives.

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On the other hand, what could bring Russia to the negotiating table even though NATO's support for Ukraine has always been presented by Putin as a red line?

That's the whole question. But I think we should not overlook the fact that Russia is not doing so well. In terms of the economy, signals such as the fall of the ruble or the increase in bankruptcies show that the situation is very difficult. Maybe Putin can say to himself: “I took a certain part of the territory, that's a victory.” Everything will depend on the security guarantees that NATO would offer, on the territories that would be conceded… There are plenty of parameters that we do not yet have and which could lead Putin to negotiate. We must also not forget that Ukraine occupies part of Russian territory – in the Kursk oblast, Editor’s note – which could be part of the negotiation. But we must not forget that Putin can also take the time of a ceasefire to reconstitute his military industry with the idea of ​​returning to Ukraine later.