Hamas leaders engaged in ceasefire talks in Gaza in Cairo. This follows a truce agreement in Lebanon, signed two days ago by Israel and Hezbollah.
To accept the truce, Netanyahu had to resist far-right members of his cabinet who wanted “total victory.” This truce could have the consequence of increasing tensions between Lebanese Shiites and Sunnis.
Peace in the Middle East is not for tomorrow. The Israeli government’s primary goal remains to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In Gaza, Netanyahu is preparing the ground for a prolonged Israeli security presence. He also wants to ban forever the prospects of a two-state solution (Israel and Palestine).
Will Trump help Netanyahu?
Trump’s return to power comes as momentum shifts toward Israel in the Middle East. More than a year of intense fighting in Gaza has allowed the Jewish state to inflict irreparable damage on Hamas’s command structure and greatly degrade its operational capabilities. Israel has caused similar damage to Hezbollah, the spearhead of the Iranian “axis of resistance” in Lebanon.
Trump told Netanyahu in October: “Do what you have to do” to finish the job.
Trump, who has no qualms with international standards, is a staunch supporter of Israel. Even more than Biden. Netanyahu said Trump was “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” Trump’s unwavering support may be greatly exaggerated. He is very unpredictable and has a great aversion to wars in which the United States might intervene abroad. Trump ended his first term hurling insults at Netanyahu and has since made clear that he has no desire for Israel to prolong hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon.
When they met in Florida in July, Trump asked Netanyahu to end the war before Biden leaves office. Some analysts believe the ceasefire with Hezbollah was a gift to Trump.
What appears to be Trump’s new approach to Iran could also pose problems for Israel. He told reporters in September: “We have to make a deal” with Tehran, saying he was open to negotiations on a new version of the historic nuclear deal from which he withdrew while president.
Israel also needs peace
A year of war has demoralized Israelis: more than 100 hostages are still held in Gaza and tens of thousands are still displaced from their homes near the Lebanese border. In addition, IDF soldiers and reservists are exhausted to the point that the Netanyahu government is recruiting foreign mercenaries.
Trump’s isolationism and reluctance to commit U.S. military forces to foreign conflicts heralds a major foreign policy shift that would negatively affect Israel.
Trump might want to strut himself as the great peacemaker of the Middle East.
