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Maxim T’sjoen
Published on
Nov. 30, 2024 at 6:40 p.m.
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These are not forecasts, but trends that Météo-France draws up. On November 28, 2024, the weather organization released its three-month trends, comprising December, January and February. In short, winter 2025.
This makes it possible to “identify probabilistic trends on a European scale”. It is impossible, three months in advance, to “predict the details of the weather conditions”.
Hotter than normal?
On temperatures, Météo France predicts that the “warmer than seasonal temperatures” scenario has a one in two chance of coming true.
A warmer than normal scenario is most likely for France, and more generally across Europe and the Mediterranean basin.
For the “compliant” and “colder” scenarios, Météo France estimates that they both have a 25% chance of happening.
This is not necessarily what will happen
Let’s insist. It is very difficult to be precise three months in advance. Also, these are only trends, envisaged scenarios, probabilities, and not at all forecasts.
Moreover, “the climate trend only attempts to determine whether the coming season will be on average rather warmer, colder than the seasonal norm or simply close to it. An average trend consistent with normal can be the result of a succession of cold and hot episodes,” explains Météo France on its site.
No preferred scenario for rain
On the other hand, Météo France is not able to identify a clear trend for precipitation, whether in France or in Europe.
Thus, scenarios that are wetter, more consistent and drier than seasonal norms all have a 33% probability of occurring, according to the organization.
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