(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street is open for half a session and new absolute records have already been broken, however only ‘futures’ operate on T-Bonds (-5Pts at 4.207%, or -20.5Pts weekly ), the day after the Thanksgiving holiday: expectations of an increase in consumer spending are not currently fueling inflationary fears.
American companies are rushing to place orders in China before the increase in customs duties: the month of December could result in a sharp increase in import prices.
Rates are easing in Europe with the prospect of further rate cuts because the gloom in our economies is still as glaring due to the political, economic and geopolitical uncertainties currently plaguing the Old Continent.
‘The zone is clearly penalized by weak domestic demand and the fear of new customs duties in the United States is weighing down the confidence of business leaders who still cannot count on the Chinese recovery,’ recalls Thomas Giudici, manager. at Salamandre (Auris Gestion).
‘The ECB therefore has no choice but to accelerate its pace of rate cuts despite wage growth which remains strong,’ judges the professional.
Over the whole week, Eurozone Treasury bonds lost -18 points on average.
The Bunds erase -5.5Pts this Friday (to 2.0850), the OATs -4.7 (2.895%), the Italian BTPs -7.5Pts towards 3.2720% (the Italian ’10 years’ relaxes by – 23Pts over the week on average… and the ‘spread’ with our OATs drops to +39Pts compared to 50 10 days ago.
The good news for France is that the OAT/Bund spread was reduced from 88 to 82 points in 48 hours, which demonstrates a certain composure (no anticipated deterioration) before the Standard & verdict. Poors on our debt tonight.
Still no buoyant winds on the UK ‘Gilts’, once again going against the tide with a deterioration of +2 Points to 4.291%, or just 9 Points of improvement… that is to say half as much as on the continent.
On the figures side, investors were somewhat reassured at the end of the morning with the data concerning inflation in the euro zone: they came out in line with forecasts.
The ‘crude’ rate stood at 2.3% in November compared to +2.00% in October but the good surprise came from the ‘core’ rate which stabilized at 2.7% compared to 2.8% anticipated.
The ECB’s median inflation forecast for the next 12 months increased to 2.5%, from 2.4% previously, and the three-year inflation forecast remained stable at 2.1%.
For the record, the preliminary figures published yesterday in Germany and Spain highlighted a re-acceleration of price dynamics, mainly in the services sector, but economists judge that these statistics are not likely to rule out the scenario of a possible rate cut of 50 basis points from the ECB next month.
In France, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month over one year, consumer prices would increase by 1.3% in November 2024 according to INSEE, after +1.2% in October.
