As the Formula 1 season draws to a close, the battle for second place in the constructors’ championship between Ferrari and McLaren is intensifying. With just 24 points difference and two races remaining — the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 8 — the Scuderia Ferrari will have to pull out all the stops to overtake McLaren. But what result would allow them to achieve this feat in Qatar?
A fierce duel between Ferrari and McLaren
Currently, McLaren dominates Scuderia Ferrari by 24 points, with 608 points against 584. The two teams have an identical record this season in terms of victories (5) and podiums (19), but McLaren has been able to capitalize on impressive consistency and some key strategic performances.
At Ferrari, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz showed great competitiveness, butwill have to reach an even higher level to catch up with McLaren. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, for their part, often took advantage of their constant pace to keep McLaren in the lead in this fight.
Possible scenarios for Ferrari to overtake McLaren
To hope to pass McLaren this weekend in Qatar, Ferrari will have to score at least 25 points more than McLaren. This involves flawless performances from both their drivers, as well as a bold strategy from the team. Here are some possible scenarios:
- Ferrari achieves a double (1st and 2nd places) and the best lap:
- Total : 44 points (25 points for victory, 18 points for 2nd place, and 1 point for the best lap).
- McLaren must then score less than 20 points (for example, a combined 3rd and 6th place would be enough for Ferrari to overtake them).
- Ferrari finishes 1st and 3rd with the fastest lap:
- Total: 41 points (25 for victory, 15 for 3rd place, 1 for best lap).
- McLaren must not exceed 16 points (e.g. 4th and 6th place combined).
- Ferrari maximizes the podiums with a 1st and 4th place without a best lap:
- Total: 37 points (25 for victory, 12 for 4th place).
- McLaren must then stay outside the top 5 (for example, two 7th places or less).
The challenges ahead for Ferrari
Ferrari will above all have to count on a fast and reliable car on the Lusail circuit. This layout, which favors cars with a good balance between downforce and straight-line speed, could work to their advantage if the latest technical updates made to the Las Vegas Grand Prix bear fruit. In addition, tire management will be crucial, as the high temperatures and long, fast curves will put the tires to the test.
Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will also have to avoid any clashes, a mistake that could be costly facing McLaren drivers who are always opportunistic.
If Ferrari has a mathematical chance of overtaking McLaren, the latter will not let it happen. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, in great form this season, have proven that they can perform under pressure. The reliability of the McLaren MCL60 and the effectiveness of their race strategy will be assets to maintain their lead.
The verdict this weekend in Qatar
Will Ferrari be able to make a spectacular comeback or will McLaren confirm its hold on 2nd place? Answer this weekend, with a Qatar Grand Prix which promises epic battles on and off the track. One thing is certain: every point will count in this duel which will mark the end of the 2024 season.
