Michel Barnier backtracked on certain measures in the 2025 finance bill to meet Marine Le Pen’s demands and avoid censorship. The fact remains that the RN continues to put pressure on the government and gives it until Monday to satisfy two final conditions.
The bottom line:
- Will the Barnier government be overthrown next week? He is threatened by a motion of censure while the finance bill on the 2025 budget only seems to be able to be adopted with the use of 49.3. The vote on a text on the Social Security budget on December 2 could accelerate the process of censorship of the Prime Minister. The date of December 4 has been brought forward.
- Government censorship essentially depends on the vote of the National Rally (RN) which puts pressure on Michel Barnier. To seduce the far-right party, Michel Barnier backed down on two measures of the 2025 budget to align with the positions of the far-right: he announced the “14% drop in electricity prices” and that of the budget allocated to state medical aid.
- Concessions which were not enough to make Marine Le Pen flinch. The leader of the RN deputies launched an ultimatum to the Prime Minister, warning him that he “has until Monday” to satisfy the four red lines of the party, two of which have not yet been heard by the government: full indexation of pensions from January 1, 2025 and the renunciation of the reduction in reimbursement for medicines. Otherwise, the RN says it is “ready” to censor the government.
- Michel Barnier’s reversals have sparked strong reactions in the left-wing parties who point out the “dishonor” of Michel Barnier in “negotiating” with Marine Le Pen to stay in Matignon.
And directly
09:21 – A “betrayal” if the RN does not censor the government
“If the RN does not censor [le gouvernement de Michel Barnier]they will once again betray the French”, said the coordinator of La France insoumise, Manuel Bompard, on BFMTV this Friday morning. A statement made in response to the negotiations taking place between the far-right party and the government and after the concessions of the Prime Minister to the demands of the far right The head of LFI who knows that a motion of censure can only succeed if the RN votes for it, hopes that Marine Le Pen’s party will support the text to overthrow. the government despite the deep disagreements between the two parties.
Manuel Bompard also castigated Michel Barnier’s decision to give in to Marine Le Pen’s demands, particularly on the issue of state medical aid accessible to undocumented immigrants which will be “significantly” reduced. “It’s economic and health nonsense, and it’s a moral shame,” said the rebel on BFMTV, believing that “Mr. Barnier chose dishonor to avoid censorship.”
09:03 – Barnier’s concessions are a “victory” or “tinkering” according to RN deputies
All RN deputies welcome the concessions made by Michel Barnier on the 2025 budget, but some show more enthusiasm than others: while the party’s spokesperson in the National Assembly, Gaëtan Dussausaye, spoke of “victory ” on France Inter, the vice-president of the party, Sébastien Chenu, spoke on Franceinfo of “do-it-yourself” measures to align with the red lines of the RN. Both, like all members of the party, are however unanimous on the fact that the announcements made yesterday by the Prime Minister are not enough and that at this stage the RN plans to vote on a motion of censure against the government. Sébastien Chenu, however, said that “everything is possible in life” including the fact that the far right ultimately does not support the overthrow of the executive.
08:31 – After a step towards the RN, the government expects an effort from Marine Le Pen
“To find compromises it takes two,” said government spokesperson Maud Bregeon this Friday on France 2 regarding the finance bill and an agreement between Michel Barnier and Marine Le Pen with the aim of to avoid a motion of censure. “By renouncing the increase in the electricity tax” this Thursday, Michel Barnier took “a major step”, believes the minister who is now calling on the far-right party to do the same. Maud Bregeon goes so far as to question the ambitions of the head of the RN deputies: “Do Madame Le Pen and the National Rally really wish to allocate a budget to France? Or does Marine Le Pen and the National Rally want to send France into the wall?”
08:20 – “He has until Monday”: Le Pen gives Barnier an ultimatum
“All the boxes must be checked” so that the RN does not support censorship of the Barnier government, warned MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy on Thursday, November 28. For the time being, two have been fulfilled after the Prime Minister’s concessions on the reduction in the price of electricity and the cancellation of planned taxes, as well as on the reduction in the state medical aid budget. But there are still two measures that the RN poses as red lines: the full indexation of pensions from January 1, 2025 and the renunciation of the reduction in reimbursement for medicines. Marine Le Pen shares this opinion and assures that without respecting her red lines, her party will vote on a motion of censure. “It’s Thursday. He has until Monday” to meet these demands, she said in Le Monde last night, to the attention of Michel Barnier.
11/28/24 – 11:30 p.m. – Emmanuel Macron “should think about his resignation”, says François Ruffin
END OF LIVE – Still on the microphone of BFMTV this evening, the deputy for Somme was not very tender towards Marine Le Pen, Prime Minister Michel Barnier, but also President Emmanuel Macron. While the threat of censorship hangs over the government, François Ruffin judged that Emmanuel Macron, who in his eyes is “the only one responsible”, “should think about his resignation”.
28/11/24 – 22:39 – The repeal of the pension reform, not among Le Pen’s red lines, raises Ruffin
Denouncing the “blackmail” of the National Rally, the NFP deputy for the Somme, François Ruffin, questioned the famous red lines of the RN: “How is it that Madame Le Pen does not place retirement at 60 after 40 annuities, that she does not place the repeal of Macron’s pension reform among her red lines and on her shopping list?” questioned the one for whom “Michel Barnier was installed [à Matignon] because it was compatible with the National Rally”.
28/11/24 – 22:01 – Marine Le Pen “will not press the censorship button this time”, believes Richard Ramos
On the set of BFMTV Thursday evening, MoDem MP Richard Ramos said he did not believe that Marine Le Pen, “who is the only one to decide”, would choose to press “the censorship button”. For him, the motion of censure will not be voted on because it is not in the interest of Marine Le Pen. “What reassures the markets, what makes the mark in France is: one, our capacity to raise taxes, and two, our political stability. And today, Madame Le Pen cannot add more political instability if it wants to be credible for 2027,” he explained.
To go further:
The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget does not find consensus among parliamentarians. Moreover, according to information from Le Parisien, even Emmanuel Macron confides behind the scenes that the “government will fall”, banking on censorship of the RN, “sooner than we think”. Information officially denied by the Elysée, but which spreads the rumor that the president is already preparing for the post-Barnier era.
It must be said that it is quite clear to everyone: Marine Le Pen is now aiming to bring down the government over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose tightened. Marine Le Pen spoke with the head of government in the morning and she did not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me at the same time to be courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the lines reds of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN votes for the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if our words have gained ground, but nothing is less certain,” she said. “If the government persists and does not want to discuss, then this government will fall,” warned the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, Wednesday November 27 at the microphone of BFMTV.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Given the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen in the coming days? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” a political supporter from Michel Banier tells Politico, who mentions the counter-budget as “very reasonable and encrypted” of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. Michel Barnier’s ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will put an end to the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the discussions in the CMP. And then he will no longer have control.
If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN’s tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would change political priorities at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.
