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Souleymane Loum
| 28 seconds ago
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The first good news is that the conflict in the Middle East has not impacted oil supplies to Iran or other producers in the Persian Gulf. And we will move further away from this specter if the ceasefire between Israel and Tehran’s foe, the Lebanese Hezbollah, holds in the long term, beyond the 6 months set by Tel Aviv. This will prevent Iran from having to show its muscles to defend the Lebanese fighters, and in any case Tehran does not have the means to do so in the face of the Israeli army and the American armada camped on its doorstep. So Iran will be able to concentrate on the production and export of its oil…
The American bank Goldman Sachs even predicts an oversupply and consequently a sharp decline in average crude oil prices in 2025. The average price of a barrel of Brent, the price reference for the majority of world oil production, should increase. ‘establish at around 76 dollars next year, against a backdrop of plethoric supply, explained the American bank in a note sent to its clients on November 22, 2024. This forecast is a decline of 4 dollars per barrel in comparison with this year’s average price ($80).
«Our base case is that Brent remains in a range of $70-$85, with strong reserve capacity limiting price rises, and price elasticity of OPEC and shale supply limiting the decline. prices“, indicated the investment bank’s analysts. Obviously this is bad news for producing countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, etc.), for buyers it is godsend.
Goldman Sachs believes the global crude supply surplus is expected to be 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and more than double that the year after, to 900,000 bpd. This announced mass makes the Wall Street bank say that Brent prices could fall to $71 per barrel in 2026. There remains the sword of Damocles hanging over the oil industry and Iranian exports, a sword that the president will hold firmly American Donald Trump…
The Republican makes his comeback to the White House on January 20; Tehran, Europe, the world are holding their breath. It was the Republican who undermined the enormous work carried out by President Barack Obama, which resulted in the signing of the Vienna Accords on Iranian nuclear power and the lifting of sanctions. Trump had put the lead back on and since then the Mullahs have not raised their heads above water.
The new Iranian president quickly gave assurances to the Europeans but everyone knows that it is the Americans who interest him the most. Tehran is currently discussing nuclear power with France, the United Kingdom and Germany, but not directly with the USA. If Trump is convinced he will loosen the grip of sanctions and Israel will remain calm, if the White House is in doubt it will take Iran by the throat and then crude oil prices could soar in the short term.
If other sanctions are rained down on Tehran from January 2025, the price of Brent could rise to 85 dollars per barrel in the first half of the year, with the hypothesis of a drop of 1 million bpd. At the same time, Goldman Sachs expects demand for oil to continue to grow over the next 10 years, due to the increase in overall demand for energy products, global economic growth, issues relating to the decarbonization of air transport and petrochemical products.
Note that oil prices experienced a slight increase on Tuesday, November 26, before the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was signed; this outbreak of fever can also be explained by the intensification of fighting between Russia and Ukraine. At 10:30 GMT the price of a barrel of Brent, for delivery in January, had gained +1.05% to $73.78. Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), deliverable the same month, increased by 1.03%, to $69.65.
Finally, be aware that a meeting of members of the Alliance of OPEC+ oil producing countries is scheduled for this Sunday, December 1 to discuss the status quo or the reduction in crude production…
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American bank, barrel of Brent, barrel of oil, cease fire, Middle East conflict, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Middle East war, Iran-Israel, Israel-Hezbollah, Iranian nuclear power, oversupply, OPEC, Iranian oil, price medium, Iranian production, American sanctions
