The first flakes fell last week, forming a snow cover over certain European regions. Weather warnings had been issued in the United Kingdom, Ireland and France. Heavy rain and strong winds from Storm Bert soon followed.
But is this weather where storms follow snowfall usual in November? Is it a harbinger of the weather to be expected this winter throughout Europe? Euronews Green spoke to meteorologists to get their views.
Recent snowfall in Europe is normal for November, but its “intensity” would be rather “rare”
“When I was a child in Belgium, the first snowfall and snow cover generally appeared in mid-November. So we are average [pour l’Europe] regarding snowfall in general,” says Lars Lowinski, Bonn-based meteorologist for WetterOnline and Weather and Radar.
Lowinski, however, explains how the phenomenon observed in November differs somewhat from usual scenarios.
“Even in times of climate change, with temperatures generally increasing, these first waves of cold, frost and ice, where we see a few centimeters of snow appearing, are nothing unusual this time of year,” Lowinski said, “but what was significant (last week) was the amount of snow.”
While heavy snowfall is common in February and March, when sea temperatures are lower, this is a rare occurrence this early in the season. It was caused by low pressure systems coming up from the Atlantic Ocean and combining with cold air.
“Parts of France and south-west England, and even areas of Cornwall and Devon – which are usually quite warm at this time of year – experienced significant snowfall, and Paris saw 4 cm of snow fall this Thursday, which was very unusual.”
Paris had not experienced such snowfall in November since 1968.
“It shows how important this event is unusual and extreme for many regions of central and northern France”, adds Mr. Lowinski.
Some European cities are not well prepared for heavy snowfall
“The snow amounts observed in Paris are generally low, even in the middle of winter, and so people cannot cope with it as effectively as in the Alps, Bavaria or Scotland, for example. Even a “any small amount of snow on the streets leads to chaos and traffic jams on the roads, and that's exactly what happened, despite warnings from forecasters in France that a major event would occur.”
According to the British forecasting institute, the Met Office, “in terms of context, the latest orange alert issued [par leurs services] for snowfall dates back to November 2010. However, this was a much more intense and larger snowfall. This type of event in November is therefore not unprecedented, but it is not common.”
The last episode winter weather major, in November 2010, resulted from a “Siberian Express”, according to Mr. Lowinski, in other words a high pressure system which usually brings calmer weather. In Western Europetemperatures had dropped to -15°C or -20°C.
“What is particularly exceptional about this episode is that climate change was already a problem and temperatures were already rising globally. Temperatures were not as high as they are today, because it was “This is an ongoing process, so it is unlikely that we will experience this type of event again,” adds Mr. Lowinski.
It remains difficult to predict what weather will be observed this winter, but we must prepare for all eventualities
Storm Bert appeared on weather models several days in advance and was named by Met Éireann (the Irish weather office) 48 hours in advance.
This gives time to issue alerts and prepare emergency planssuch as the implementation of flood prevention measures.
Storm Bert, which swept across Europe this weekend, moved slowly. Meteorologists have been concerned because the longer a storm lasts, the more likely it is to turn into heavy rain, flooding and strong winds.
Unfortunately, localized or smaller weather events, such as snow showers or flash flooding, are more difficult to predict for meteorologists, who can perceive them only 12 to 24 hours in advance.
According to meteorologists, what winter can we expect in Europe?
For meteorologists, winter doesn't officially begin until December 1st.
Countries like Germany and Belgium tend to have a more continental climate. This means that temperatures are generally lower in winter and higher in summer than in coastal regions.
Overall, fairly average temperatures and precipitation are expected this winter, according to Mr. Lowinski.
“In the northern parts of Europe – everything north of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw – it is likely that conditions will be wetter than average and there may be a few storms “In southern Western Europe, such as southern Spain, the Mediterranean, the Alps and the Balkans, conditions are more likely to be drier over the next three months,” says Lowinski.
Towards warmer and more extreme European winters?
Due to global warming, winters will undoubtedly be warmer in Europe.
For example, the DWD weather station in Baden-Baden, in southwest Germany, has just recorded 22.2°C, a new record for the last ten days of November for the whole of Germany .
Furthermore, six of the ten warmest winters on record in the UK have occurred since 2007.
Mr. Lowinski points out that it is interesting to observe such significant temperature variations in Europe, as was the case in November, with temperatures going from zero to 18°C.
While notable and sudden temperature changes are common in Asia and North America, they are usually less likely to occur in Europe.
