Key information
- Russian gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine are decreasing and may cease after January 1, 2025.
- The potential shutdown stems from kyiv’s refusal to negotiate new transit terms with Moscow amid the current war.
- Completely stopping Russian gas flows through Ukraine could have knock-on effects despite the relatively modest volume.
Russian gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine are decreasing. After January 1, 2025, this pipeline could cease operations completely when the current five-year agreement expires. This potential closure is due to kyiv’s refusal to negotiate new transit conditions with Moscow in the context of the current war.
Although the volume of Russian gas transiting Ukraine to Europe is relatively modest, accounting for only 8 percent of peak flows seen between 2018 and 2019, its complete shutdown could have repercussions.
European efforts in energy diversification
The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, a Soviet-era infrastructure, carries Siberian gas through Ukrainian territory to Slovakia, where it branches off to the Czech Republic and Austria. Despite efforts to diversify energy sources, countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia remain dependent on Russian gas imports through this route. Other operational Russian gas pipelines to Europe are TurkStream and Blue Stream, which deliver gas to Turkey and some volumes of which eventually reach Hungary.
The challenge of EU unity
While these relatively small volumes of gas transit may seem insignificant compared to Russia’s past dominance of the European energy market, they represent a complex dilemma for the EU. The Union faces divergent positions from member states like France and Germany, which have pledged to end Russian gas imports, while countries like Slovakia, Hungary and the Austria maintains closer ties with Moscow and says Russian gas remains economically viable. This situation highlights the challenges to achieving a unified European approach to energy security.
Consequences for Russia
The potential end of the Ukrainian transit route underscores Russia’s struggle to maintain its grip on the European energy market. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU undertook efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, leading to a significant decline in Moscow’s market share. As a result, Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian gas giant, recorded its first annual loss since 1999 in 2023.
Despite this financial setback, Russia has expressed its willingness to extend the transit agreement. However, Ukraine has consistently rejected this proposal, making the future of gas flows through Ukraine uncertain.
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