Droughts, floods, extreme temperatures… The effects of climate change on coffee production are disastrous. This situation could lead to an increase in prices for the 94% of French people who regularly consume this drink.
Climatic factors
Global warming is seriously affecting coffee production. In Vietnam, the world's leading producer of robusta, excessive heat slows the growth of coffee trees. In Brazil, the leading producer of Arabica, lack of rain led to a drop in harvests. These climatic hazards have caused a scarcity of coffee, pushing up prices. The price of a ton of coffee has doubled in one year. In addition, producers, who earn very little money from their crops, no longer replace coffee plants every fifteen years as they did before, as our colleagues at CNews explain.
Increase in demand
The global demand for coffee continues to grow, particularly in Asia where many coffee chains are opening their doors. It is estimated that by 2026, demand for organic coffee will double. And, conversely, the profession of coffee producer attracts less and less the younger generations, leading to a lack of labor for the harvest. This shortage also contributes to rising prices.
New regulations
From January 1, 2025, a new European standard will force importers to prove that their coffee does not come from recently deforested areas. This measure creates tensions on the markets and pushes prices upwards.
Consequences for consumers
The effects of this increase are already being felt: at the counter, the average price of a coffee has increased to 1.40 euros. In the theater, the average price reaches 2.80 euros. In supermarkets, the 250g package of ground coffee increased by 14 cents since January 2024. Some experts predict that prices could rise another 20% by the end of the year.
Faced with this situation, some suggest that the future of coffee could be to consume it “less but better”like wine.
