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Israel, despite being one of the most technologically advanced military powers in the world, faces a persistent paradox: its tactical victories on the battlefield do not translate into lasting strategic gains. This observation is particularly obvious in recent conflicts, where the human, economic and political costs have proven to be disproportionate to the objectives achieved.
1. Military exhaustion: high cost for limited results
Despite its technological and operational superiority, Israel faces increasing obstacles in its military campaigns.
has. The challenges of asymmetric warfare
Recent clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza illustrate the challenges of asymmetric warfare, where the Israeli military faces adversaries mastering sophisticated guerrilla tactics. For example, Israeli advances at Maroun el-Ras, once rapid and decisive, were hampered in 2024 by reinforced defenses. Where three days were enough in 1982, it took three weeks this time, despite much greater firepower.
b. The limits of Iron Dome and defensive systems
Iron Dome, Israel’s technological pride, has shown its limits in the face of massive and coordinated attacks. In October 2024, missiles fired by Hezbollah struck Tel Aviv and, in a symbolic and devastating act, the official residence of Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Globesthis event highlighted a previously unsuspected vulnerability and increased pressure on the security firm.
c. A costly and prolonged strategy
The protracted war mobilizes colossal human and material resources, with mixed results. Objectives such as the release of hostages or the complete neutralization of opposing capabilities remain elusive, reinforcing a feeling of impasse. These tactical failures, combined with strikes on nerve centers like Tel Aviv, are exacerbating panic and distrust among the population.
2. Economic collapse: unbearable tensions
The economic strain caused by the war is not only eroding Israeli resilience but also exposing its critical dependencies.
has. A declining GDP
According to data from Jerusalem PostIsrael’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a contraction of 2.7% in the last quarter, marked by a massive interruption of commercial and industrial activities. The strikes on Tel Aviv made this situation worse, damaging critical infrastructure and leading to a collapse of the tourism sector.
b. Unsustainable military spending
Direct military spending, estimated at more than $10 billion in 2024, represents a burden on the Israeli economy. Damage to infrastructure from precision missiles fired from Lebanon and Gaza adds additional cost, says Haaretz.
c. Growing dependence on foreign aid
Israel relies largely on U.S. military aid, but growing criticism from the European Union and accusations of war crimes are making it difficult to maintain some economic partnerships. According to Ynetnegotiations on arms exports, notably with Germany for the Iron Dome, were slowed down by controversies.
3. Political challenges: a deeply divided Israeli cabinet
The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, faces internal tensions that undermine the coherence and effectiveness of its strategic decisions.
has. Growing polarization within the firm
The Israeli security cabinet, made up of representatives from the different factions of the government coalition, is marked by deep divisions. The most right-wing ministers, such as Bezalel Smotrich or Itamar Ben-Gvir, favor an aggressive military approach and support expansionist policies in the West Bank. On the other hand, other, more moderate members, notably Benny Gantz, are calling for a more cautious strategy and for a rapid ceasefire in order to limit human and economic losses. According to Maarivthese disagreements often paralyze decision-making.
b. Internal criticism of defense institutions
Tensions also emerged between the government and senior army officials. The IDF chief of staff expressed concerns about the feasibility of military objectives and called for better coordination between the government and the armed forces. According to Haaretzthis internal divide reflects a loss of trust between institutions.
c. Netanyahu’s loss of popularity
Benjamin Netanyahu, faced with accusations of corruption and criticism of his management of conflicts, saw his popularity collapse. An investigation of Yedioth Aharonot reveals that 62% of Israelis disapprove of his management of the war, particularly after the strikes on Tel Aviv. This unpopularity makes it even more difficult for Netanyahu to maintain cohesion within his government.
4. Diplomatic isolation: an ally that has become cumbersome
Israel, once seen as a strategic bastion for Western democracies, is seeing its international image rapidly deteriorate.
has. Standardization on hold
The Abraham Accords, which initiated a historic rapprochement with Arab countries, are now weakened. Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is reluctant to continue the normalization process, fearing a violent popular backlash and an impact on his own legitimacy.
b. Increased recognition of the Palestinian state
According to +972 Magazinemany countries, particularly in Latin America and Europe, have stepped up their support for Palestine, a trend fueled by images of mass destruction in Gaza. This increased recognition further isolates Israel on the international stage.
c. Criticisms from Western allies
Even the United States, Israel’s main ally, expresses reservations about the tactics used in recent conflicts. The European Union, for its part, threatens to review its economic partnerships if accusations of war crimes persist.
5. A changing region: Israel faces new challenges
The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly, and Israel must adapt to growing competition and shifting alliances.
has. The increased role of China and Russia
China, now a major player in the region, plays a mediating role between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while strengthening its economic relations with countries like Egypt. Russia, for its part, continues to support its allies in Syria, further complicating Israeli strategic calculations.
b. Iran and its proxies
Despite international sanctions, Iran continues to finance and arm Hezbollah and other armed groups. These regional allies, equipped with advanced technologies, such as drones and precision missiles, complicate any Israeli intervention.
c. Religious and ideological divides
The failure of secular Arab nationalism and the rise of religious ideologies are exacerbating regional tensions. Israel must now face adversaries whose motivation goes beyond simple political considerations.
6. Geostrategic lessons: strategic failure despite tactical victories
Israel remains a major military power, but its recent wars reveal structural flaws: military vulnerabilities, an economy under pressure, growing diplomatic isolation and internal political instability. Without a complete overhaul of its military and diplomatic strategy, the country risks continuing to accumulate tactical victories without managing to secure long-term peace and stability.
Sources :
- Globes: Analysis of the limits of the Iron Dome
- Haaretz: Assessing economic costs and internal divisions
- Maariv: Tensions within the Israeli cabinet
- Jerusalem Post: Regional alliances and geopolitical perspectives
- Al-Monitor: Impacts of the Abraham Accords on normalization
- +972 Magazine: Growing international support for Palestine
- Yedioth Aharonot: Analysis of public opinions in Israel
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