With the imminent achievement of the main tactical objectives, the approach of winter, the need to refurbish the arsenal, the exhaustion of the troops having fought for many months, it is time to capitalize on the military successes of the IDF and to consider negotiated ceasefire solutions. The achievements on the ground must be consolidated by security measures and administrative mechanisms ensuring that terrorist factions cannot rearm or redeploy, and that an alternative is found for them to manage the areas they controlled.
In Gaza, this problem should have been addressed months ago. It would have been necessary to provide for the development of a local or international security apparatus which would be responsible for maintaining order as well as a new administrative regime for the management of the Gaza Strip. Today, regrettably, wherever the IDF withdraws, Hamas regains power. However, it is out of the question to consider a long-term military occupation. It would be bogged down. The army is reinforcing its positions along the Philadelphia and Netzarim axes in order to be able to intervene quickly if necessary, without leaving significant forces on the ground.
Contrary to the advice of strategic experts, certain members of the government advocate the reinstatement of Jewish settlements with a view to possible annexation of the territories. And therefore a return to the situation preceding the Israeli evacuation of Gaza ordered by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2005. And which Benjamin Netanyahu was firmly opposed to the point of resigning from the government. Until now, no resolution has been passed in one direction or the other, creating a disastrous vacuum which is to the advantage of the enemy while there are proposals on the table, emanating from Americans, Arab countries and even private companies, which would allow Israel to close the door on Gaza and throw away the key. It is important to note that the heads of the IDF and Shin Beth warn that any continuation of the offensive in Gaza endangers the lives of hostages held in Hamas’s final strongholds.
Concerning southern Lebanon, a ceasefire seems not only possible but desirable to the extent that a protracted war of attrition would play into the hands of Hezbollah. Here too, the time has come to plan an IDF withdrawal to avoid the troops getting stuck in the middle of winter. But above all in order to take advantage of the weakening of Hezbollah’s political position within Lebanon as well as Tehran’s instructions not to escalate. Iran fears that its main “proxy” will be reduced to nothing. Here too, if an arrangement is reached between Beirut and Jerusalem, regional and international guarantees are needed. Otherwise, it will be out of the question to expect that tens of thousands of Israeli citizens evacuated from the danger zone will agree to return to their homes.
Judea and Samaria also demands that decisions be made urgently. Dozens of Israeli battalions are mobilized there even though they are intended to operate on other fronts. Some ministers are pushing for a pure and simple annexation of the territories while others favor a strengthening of the Palestinian Authority, and even the return of its hegemony over Gaza, on the condition that the leaders of the PLO and Hamas are ousted in the benefit of a new generation, more technocratic or by personalities more capable of enforcing order, such as Mohamed Dahlan. .
Here again, everything is stuck at the political level, which forces the military to continue an endless day-to-day campaign, without any strategic vision specifying the long-term goal. Israel’s security and defense services work in the dark, following their professional choices. These choices do not necessarily align with those the government would make. But the government has not drawn a guideline, nor defined a clear direction as to its intentions, leaving a fog hanging over the security future of the nation.
The last big piece is Iran. It is clear that the IDF’s successes have completely changed the strategic equation in the Middle East. Tehran was counting on Hezbollah and Hamas for a possible mass offensive against Israel. It’s a failure. As for the Houthis in Yemen, they are under fire from an international coalition. The question remains whether to hit Iran even harder or to leave it at that for now. Who will decide? Will the government listen to the military? It would be good for them since they are the ones who planned, mounted and led the spectacular victories of recent months. But we can doubt it seeing the Prime Minister dismiss the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, from his functions and replace him with a politician poorly qualified for the post.
Speaking of qualification, it is indeed important to know who you will negotiate with the next day. It is unfortunate that the regimes and leaders with whom Israel must deal are corrupt, dictatorial or unstable. In short, not at all reliable. Impossible to trust Hamas. We also do not know who, within this faction in complete disarray, is authorized to ratify and then enforce an agreement. The leaders of Gaza, holed up in the tunnels? Or those who lounge in the palaces of Istanbul and Damascus? Ditto for Hezbollah. And also for a dysfunctional Lebanese government that could fall overnight.
Hence the absolute necessity for the involvement of normative nations, American and European in the lead, to assume their responsibilities regarding the stability of the next day in the Middle East. It is also in their economic and energy interest. Not to mention their moral and humanitarian obligation. We cannot, however, expect Israel to hold the entire region and single-handedly stem the jihadist surge.
Multiple questions remain unanswered. What will Donald Trump do? Or even his son-in-law, Jared Kushner? What will the Chinese decide? Which camp will MBS go to? Who will succeed Abu Mazen and Khamenei? But three factors are sure and certain. Nothing should be considered or negotiated until the Israeli hostages of October 7 are released. Second, the next day is late for the appointment. So, it’s now or never. And finally, if the modalities are not well put together and the enemy regains momentum while the rest of the planet folds its arms, the day after is likely to become the day before. Before widespread conflict. And maybe even global.
