At each stage of this interminable war which, for 1004 days, has exhausted Ukraine, tired its allies and worried our public opinion, we search for the words to characterize and freeze if possible the levels of escalation. Since the massive Russian attacks last weekend, the pace has accelerated: green light from Washington and London authorizing kyiv to use long-range missiles and anti-personnel mines, first shots on Russian territory, response from the Kremlin which publishes an extensive version of its nuclear doctrine and the day before yesterday launched a hypersonic missile on Dnipro without its nuclear warhead, described on television as an “invincible missile”, by Vladimir Putin, as if to reassure his own population. Where are we this morning? How far can the Kremlin raise the ultimate threat without undermining the deterrence that binds the powers concerned together?
Ukraine facing the international community
Donald Trump promises to end the war in 24 hours. Is Jo Biden preparing the ground for him by continuing to strengthen Ukraine militarily or is he making his task more difficult? Commentators are already beginning the trial of an American administration whose support for kyiv was too timid, too slow, forgetting a little quickly the hesitations and divisions of Europeans at each stage of this trying process. A process which for Ukrainians as for Vladimir Putin began just 20 years ago, in November 2004, when the Orange Revolution revealed the democratic aspirations of a population which turned towards the West, towards Europe and not more towards the Empire. Ten years later, in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbass, it was already suffering the first bloody assaults from the Kremlin.
Today, Ukraine is bloodless but Russia cannot defeat it. This is already a striking observation as it measures the courage of its population and the inability of Vladimir Putin to understand the vigor of the national feeling which unites it. Where is Ukrainian society today, how does the war affect this 20-year democratic maturation, and what could be the price of peace in its eyes?
Our guests:
Marie Mendras recently published Permanent War. The Kremlin's ultimate strategy (February 2024, Calmann-Lévy).
Alexandra Goujon published Ukraine: from independence to war (Le Cavalier Bleu, 2021, revised and expanded edition in 2023).
Elie Tenenbaum recently carried out the study “Return to the East: France, the Russian threat and the defense of the “Eastern Flank” of Europe” for IFRI, in collaboration with Amélie Zima.
Constantin Sigov published the book in January 2023 The courage of Ukraine. A question for Europeans (Editions du Cerf); And When Ukraine rises. The birth of a new Europe with Laure Mandeville (Talent Editions, 2022).
Adrien Nonjon published in September 2023 the work The Azov Regiment: Ukrainian nationalism at war (Editions du Cerf).
