In an article for the daily La Dépêche, Jean Tirole believes that many measures in the programs of the National Rally and the New Popular Front risk having harmful effects on the French economy.
The economic measures of the programs of the National Rally and the New Popular Front are particularly scrutinized as the legislative elections approach. The two blocs are in fact planning significant expenditure, the financing of which is questioned by many experts.
The latest is Jean Tirole, who wrote an op-ed in the columns of the daily newspaper La Dépêche. In it, the 2014 Nobel Prize winner in economics deciphers the risks that some of the flagship measures of the two political parties pose to the French economy.
“What could result from the application of these programs can only worry any citizen concerned with preserving our social system and our liberal democracy,” he summarizes in his introduction to his remarks.
The economist criticizes the RN and the NFP in particular for wanting to restore purchasing power to the French but without promoting wealth creation. “We cannot redistribute money that we do not have,” he insists.
A “French pathology of over-indebtedness”
Between the reduction in VAT on energy prices promised by the National Rally or the repeal of the pension and unemployment insurance reforms carried out by the NFP, several measures from the two blocs will significantly increase the debt and therefore its repayment, while France’s interest rate is already rising. This increase in the debt burden will mean money that cannot be invested in education, health or even the ecological transition.
The Nobel Prize winner in economics is also concerned about the perception of such expensive programs by France’s European neighbors. “This French pathology of over-indebtedness will be perceived from the outside as a solitary and inconsequential experience that should not be supported at all costs,” he fears. “The European Central Bank will probably not intervene to save France, and besides, it has no right to do so in such a situation. As for the other Member States, they will not accept opportunistic behavior that we would never accept from them.”
“The non-compliance with European rules proposed by the two programs could well mark the end of European construction with the associated risks and the economic and geopolitical downgrading of France, too small to act on global regulations.”
A risk for employment on the NFP side and an erroneous vision of immigration on the RN side
According to the economist, the NFP program risks harming employment due to increased contributions from companies that will prefer to set up in other countries. The same goes for the increase in the minimum wage to 1,600 euros net that many structures, particularly VSEs and SMEs, will not be able to afford.
“The NFP wants to create subsidized jobs in associations and communities, while studies show that these jobs are most often not real jobs and harm the future of their holders,” he adds.
Jean Tirole also denounces the “fanciful idea” conveyed by the National Rally “according to which penalizing immigrants can enrich the country”: “All studies show that the cost of immigration for public finances is close to zero (immigrants contribute slightly less, because they are more unemployed, but receive significantly fewer social benefits than the French because they are on average younger), and that ultimately immigration benefits our economy (by bringing it workers in professions in shortage in particular)”.
As with the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, Jean Tirole is careful not to support anyone directly. However, he has had discussions with the head of state in recent years: he submitted a thick report after the Covid crisis to rethink the economy in the long term, and he was more recently appointed to the “presidential science council”, with eleven other high-level scientists.
