Additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows anticipated in 2025 could come mainly from the United States, which could supply 10.6 billion cubic meters (Gm3) of the chilled fuel to Europe, said Adria Chimenos, materials analyst premieres, during a webinar on Tuesday.
This year, Russian gas shipments via Ukraine are expected to reach 14 bcm, around 3-4% of European demand, but the five-year transit deal with Russian giant Gazprom expires at the end of the year .
The United States has already shipped 48 bcm of LNG to Europe this year, according to the latest ship tracking data from Kpler.
Next year, Russia could look for other routes to transport its gas, including injecting an additional 4.7 bcm to southeastern Europe via the TurkStream pipeline, according to Aurora projections.
Azerbaijan could also increase its deliveries via the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP), linking the Caspian Sea gas fields to southern Europe, with an increase of 0.44 bcm expected in 2025.
On the other hand, production constraints and growing demand for domestic gas in North Africa “will limit significant additional exports to Europe”. Algeria and Libya could supply up to 1.6 Gm3 more next year via gas pipeline.
As for Russia, LNG shipments to Europe are expected to remain limited due to sanctions and the country could turn to “friendly” markets like China and India, as well as its domestic market, Arturo explained Regalado, senior commodities analyst.
Between 2025 and 2035, Aurora estimates that LNG could cover 82% of lost Russian volumes and gas pipeline deliveries from North Africa could account for 10%. The remaining volume could be filled by an increase in domestic production and other sources of supply.
Deal renewal unlikely
A renewal of the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement under the same conditions seems “highly unlikely” and would be “very difficult” to obtain, Mr. Regalado added.
“Last time, it took high-level negotiations, with the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin, to conclude this agreement, who met a day before the contract expired,” he said. -he emphasized.
However, other types of agreements may have a better chance of coming to fruition, particularly with the next US presidency of Donald Trump who could adopt a more “transactional” approach and seek to use peace negotiations in Ukraine to find agreements. transit, according to Mr. Regalado.
