The constitutional referendum of Saturday November 16, 2024, although marked by an overwhelming “Yes” victory according to the official provisional results, reveals a more nuanced reality when we analyze the figures in depth. With a participation rate of 54%, there remain gray areas on the extent of popular support.
According to official data, “Yes” obtained 92% of the votes cast, compared to 8% for “No”. However, Paul Aimé Bagafou, National Coordinator for Gabon of the NGO “Publish What You Pay“, puts these figures into perspective. He underlines that taking into account the abstention rate of 46%, “ the 92% of “Yes” votes ultimately represent only 46% of the total electorate ».
« You have to have modest triumph “, he declared, adding that these results reflect weak mobilization more than massive and unanimous support. For him, these figures must encourage leaders to be more thoughtful and to reflect on the real expectations of the Gabonese people.
Abstention, a strong signal against the constitutional revision project?
With 46% abstention, the vote reveals a divide between the authorities and part of the population. Added to this is the weight of the votes cast against the “Yes” – abstentionists and supporters of the “No” – which together total 54%, thus exceeding the real weight of the “Yes”. “ It’s up to everyone to deduce what they want. », concludes Paul Aimé Bagafou, in a warning about the simplistic interpretation of these results.
Beyond the figures, this referendum underlines the urgency for the transitional authorities to reconnect with the population and build strong and inclusive political legitimacy. The analysis of the results by Paul Aimé Bagafou is a clear reminder that raw figures are not enough to reflect the reality at the polls.
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