Euro 2024: the Red Devils must win their group more than ever to avoid France and open the way… to the semi-finals

Euro 2024: the Red Devils must win their group more than ever to avoid France and open the way… to the semi-finals
Euro 2024: the Red Devils must win their group more than ever to avoid France and open the way… to the semi-finals

If the suspense is complete in a group E that is tighter than ever, we can see more clearly about the opponents of the teams which will emerge from the Red Devils group. The last day of Group D shuffled the cards and the matches in Group C allowed us to clean up the drafts of the best third-placed teams.

The main lesson of the day is that France changes half of the table and finds itself having to face the second of group E, that of Belgium in the round of 16. Above all, they find themselves in the same part of the table as Spain, Germany and Portugal, the three most convincing teams in the group stage.

Who are the opponents for the Red Devils?

We will know the final ranking of Group E this Wednesday evening, after the 6 p.m. matches. The group winner will more than likely face Slovenia (third in group C) or the Netherlands (third in group D), on Tuesday July 2 at 6 p.m., in Munich. With the prospect of an affordable quarter-final against Austria or the second in Group F (probably Turkey or the Czech Republic) and therefore a real chance of reaching the semi-finals.

But to win Group E, the Red Devils must dominate Ukraine and hope Slovakia doesn’t beat Romania. Another possibility: a draw against Ukraine while Slovakia-Romania ends in a draw with fewer goals…

It will be clearer, but much more complicated, if Belgium finishes second of its group: it will face the second of group D and it has been known since Tuesday: it is France, beaten by Austria on the gong! There is no doubt that such a derby would cause a lot of discussion… This match between the second in Group E and France will take place on Monday July 1 at 6 p.m. in Dusseldorf. In addition to the difficulty of facing the Blues in the round of 16, the Devils would find themselves in the densest half of the table, with Portugal, Spain and Germany.

As to third in group Ewhich could be Belgium (if it loses against Ukraine and Slovakia dominates Romania), it will face Spain this Sunday at 9 p.m., in Cologne, or England, this Sunday at 6 p.m. in Gelsenkirchen in condition of being one of the best thirds, which is not yet an absolute certainty.

41% chance of having a Belgium-France in the eighth

To translate all these possible scenarios into concrete probabilities, here is a table which translates the percentage of chances for each potential opponent of Belgium. The most likely round of 16 is the one between the Devils and France (41%), ahead of Slovenia (26%), the Netherlands (9%), Spain (6%) and England ( 3%). There therefore remains a 15% chance of seeing the Devils be eliminated this Wednesday.

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