Let's stop, Europeans, being the jokers. Mercosur, this trade treaty, is a masterful setback. Europe is in the wrong century, wanting to continue and conclude the major trade negotiations of the world before. The negotiations of the Mercosur treaty, which aims to facilitate trade between Europe and South America, started in 1999, it was a completely different era.
25 years ago, we were in a peaceful world, international trade was easy, and without any risk, because the planet was dominated by the United States. International trade then grew twice as fast as economic growth. Today, itTrade is growing at half the rate of activity.
This slowdown in global trade has occurred because the geopolitical situation has been turned upside down. Where there was the American hyperpower, today we are in the confrontation of the great powers. United States, but also China, Russia, Iran, etc. We have found an unstable state of the world, after a peaceful interlude, as happens once in a century, of 30 yearsbetween the fall of the Wall in 1989 and the Ukrainian war in 2022.
A disjointed world
Exchanges now follow the geopolitical fractures of this disjointed world. Trade is regionalizingthere is a decoupling between the broader West, that is to say the United States and its allies, and the rest of the world. “The West and The Rest”, comme dit l'historian Niall Fergusonwhich means “The West and the Rest”.
This will become more pronounced with Trump coming to power. The confrontation with China and its allies will intensify and tensions are expected within the West itself. It is entirely possible that we are entering a wave of global protectionismjust as marked as the wave of global free trade was 30 years ago. Europe must prepare for this.
What can Europe do?
Europe can no longer dream of the world of yesterday, the world without borders, ruled by international arbiters like the UN and the World Trade Organization, arbiters that we largely controlled. This world has disappeared for a long time. Today, the G20 summit begins in Brazil, many participating countries no longer want the Western and liberal-inspired order.
We now live in a world of “bad guys”, which is why we must protect our agriculture and, more broadly, our economy and our technologies, and do not let in products that do not meet our production standardslike what the Mercosur agreement provides. We must defend ourselves, that means defend our trade borders and improve competitiveness to manufacture in Europe.
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