Oil on the rise, between speculation and geopolitical risks

Oil on the rise, between speculation and geopolitical risks
Oil on the rise, between speculation and geopolitical risks

(New York) Oil prices climbed on Monday, driven by hopes of better demand in the United States which is banking on a drop in crude stocks during the summer and by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and with the war in Ukraine.


Published at 10:24 a.m.

Updated at 4:28 p.m.

The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in August, ended up 0.90% at $86.01.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery the same month, gained 1.11% to $81.63.

“We had a good session on the oil market. Investment funds are starting to realize that the market could tighten significantly in the coming weeks, with the travel season in the United States, estimated Phil Flynn of Prices Futures Group.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy also mentions “the growing confidence” among investors “in the fact that global oil stocks will inevitably fall during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere”.

At the same time, “there has been an increase in geopolitical risks,” noted Phil Flynn.

“Not only did the Houthi rebels attack ships over the weekend, but there was also a Ukrainian strike in Crimea and the Russians are blaming the United States for this, further straining the situation,” commented the Prices Futures Group analyst.

Kyiv also claimed responsibility for a drone attack on several refineries in Russia on Friday.

In the Middle East, even if there is “no disruption in the supply” of black gold for the moment, “the bellicose rhetoric largely contributes to supporting oil”, estimated Tamas Varga.

Israel’s northern front, along with Lebanon, has been the scene of escalating fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, raising fears of a larger-scale war.

On Sunday, the Shiite movement supported by Iran announced that it had targeted two Israeli military sites using explosive drones, seriously injuring a soldier, in response to the death of a leader of an allied Islamist group, in a Israeli strike in eastern Lebanon.

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