Europe expected to be in the red, wait-and-see before inflation Friday – 06/24/2024 at 07:58

Europe expected to be in the red, wait-and-see before inflation Friday – 06/24/2024 at 07:58
Europe expected to be in the red, wait-and-see before inflation Friday – 06/24/2024 at 07:58

The chart of the German stock price index DAX is pictured at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

par Augustin Turpin

The main European stock markets are expected to fall at the opening on Monday, after having ended the previous week in the red, the latest economic data having pointed to a slowdown in economic activity in the euro zone, while operators wait this week the publication of key data on inflation in Europe and the United States.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 could lose 0.39% at the opening.

Futures contracts report a decline of 0.09% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.37% for the FTSE in London and 0.14% for the Stoxx 600.

Preliminary data on inflation in several eurozone countries (France, Italy and Spain) for the month of June will be published on Friday before those for the entire currency bloc on July 2. They will provide a first glimpse of price action, a vital statistic for traders trying to anticipate the pace of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate cut this year.

The ECB cut rates on June 6, but persistently high inflation and wage demands raise doubts about the number of cuts to come.

Market participants assess the probability of a further fall in the cost of credit by the end of the year at around 64%, compared to almost 80% before the June meeting.

An upward surprise in inflation could further reduce this probability, especially as investors appear nervous on the bond market with the uncertainty linked to the legislative elections in France on June 30 and July 7.

The geopolitical factor could also have an impact on exchanges, while the first debate of the American presidential campaign is expected on Thursday and the first round of the French legislative elections anticipated this weekend.

VALUES TO FOLLOW: [L8N3IJ154]

A WALL STREET

The stock market ended in disarray on Friday in New York where investors played the cautious card after the publication of statistics showing the strength of the American economy and which are unlikely to encourage the Federal Reserve to reduce rent money.

IN ASIA

Asian stocks fell on Monday amid a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of US inflation data, while markets were on alert over possible intervention from the Central Bank of Japan (BoJ), as the dollar approached the 160 yen mark.

The Nikkei rose 0.7% with the fall in the price of the yen and expectations of a tightening of monetary policy from the BoJ.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 0.50% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations rose by 0.04%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0.84%.

RATE

The yield on ten-year Treasuries lost 0.5 basis points (bp) to 4.2515%.

CHANGES

The dollar gained 0.01% against a basket of reference currencies.

The euro lost 0.04% to 1.0694 dollars.

OIL

Oil prices are catching their breath after increasing 3% last week.

The barrel of Brent fell by 0.1% and that of American light crude oil (WTI) also lost 0.1%.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA OF (date):

COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS

FROM 10:00 a.m. Ifo institute survey on June 89.7 89.3

the business climate

(Written by Augustin Turpin)

-

-

PREV Austrian OMV Group records increase in energy prices in second quarter
NEXT Lack of transparency | Judge dismisses Rudy Giuliani’s bankruptcy case