this is how Trump would like to stop the war

Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine quickly after taking office. Russia is open, but the future American president is renowned for his unpredictability.

Patrick Diekmann / t-online

When the terrible daily life of war meets geopolitical strategy, the result is often cynical. In Ukraine, hundreds of people die every day, and according to NATO, Russia loses more than 1000 soldiers per day. However, the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, continues his offensive for strategic reasons. If he still hopes to achieve as many of his military objectives as possible to restore the disastrous results of the Russian invasion, he has not forgotten his final objective: to end up victorious.

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But will there come a time when Putin can actually consider negotiations? Experts have been asking this question since the start of the war, almost three years ago. With the election of Donald Trump as American president, the conflict will enter a new phase. The Republican promised during his campaign to end the war within 24 hours.

Donald Trump also criticized the current American administration and Western allies, whom he considered “stupid” for allowing the fighting to continue in Ukraine. After his inauguration on January 20, the tenant of the White House will therefore have to present his plan for peace. But will Russia be receptive to it?

In any case, we do not know what Donald Trump’s second term has in store for Vladimir Putin. From the Russian point of view, the Republican is unpredictable. The Kremlin therefore opts for a dual strategy: on the one hand, it displays its desire to dialogue; on the other, it seeks to strengthen the Russian military position on the ground to position itself favorably against the future American administration.

What is Trump’s plan?

Shortly after his victory, discussions about possible negotiations for the war in Ukraine resumed. But the next US president’s peace plans remain vague. According to several American media, various proposals are under study. THE Wall Street Journal talks about an idea in particular, based on the confidences of three people close to Donald Trump.

Here is what the US president-elect would propose to Russia:

Note, however, that, for the moment, these are only speculations. The future American president does not seem to have had a turnkey plan for peace during his campaign. The ideas circulating in Washington still seem very vague. Donald Trump nevertheless sees himself as a negotiator, although his deals with autocrats during his first term often failed.

For example, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un continued his nuclear program despite Donald Trump’s commitment. Likewise, the Taliban have resumed their brutal rule in Afghanistan.

It remains to be seen whether the American billionaire has learned lessons from these failures. He seems to want to keep Russia unclear about his intentions. This could be a negotiation strategy.

Trump’s three right-hand men

Vladimir Putin was surprised by Donald Trump’s choices for his cabinet. The future president wants to surround himself with hard-line figures who are loyal and determined to take a firm stance against China, Russia and Iran, and to demand more from Europe in terms of security.

Among them, Republican Senator Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State. Although he voted against American aid to Ukraine, Marco Rubio wants to limit Vladimir Putin’s influence in Europe, according to Reuters. Donald Trump seems to want to ensure that Europe assumes a greater share of security costs.

This position is shared by the future national security adviser, Mike Waltz. A former officer, he called for more support for Ukraine:

Mike Waltz therefore wants to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine so that the United States can focus on China.

Unlike Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, Fox News host and future defense secretary Pete Hegseth is less experienced in foreign policy. Although he has criticized aid to Ukraine, he has recently spoken out in favor of increased support and even called Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.”

Shows of force in Russia

Donald Trump’s future policy towards Ukraine will be determined primarily by himself. Although his three right-hand men can put pressure on Russia, if he seeks an agreement with Vladimir Putin at all costs, Rubio, Waltz and Hegseth will have to stand behind the president’s decisions. This is why the latter has chosen strategic figures, who do not have favorable links with Russia.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin share a similar approach: show their strength before negotiating. The head of the Kremlin says he is ready to discuss with the future American president, whom he even congratulated.

These flatteries surely please the future tenant of the White House. During a meeting in 2018, Vladimir Putin assured that Russia had not meddled in the 2016 American elections, and Trump then expressed his doubts about his own intelligence services, sparking an outcry in the United States.

But Russia is also playing the big game. According to the Washington Postthe two presidents spoke recently, with Donald Trump warning of an escalation in Ukraine. In response, Vladimir Putin reportedly stepped up drone attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine. The Kremlin, however, denied this exchange.

Vladimir Putin reacted to the election of Donald Trump with shows of force, intensifying his attacks and mobilizing troops in the Kursk region, partially controlled by the Ukrainian army since August. The objective seems clear: Russia wants to conquer as much territory as possible in Ukraine before the future American president takes office to improve its negotiating position.

Moreover, Russian propaganda continues to designate the United States as the main enemy. The Kremlin therefore denies any exchange with Donald Trump, whom Vladimir Putin only congratulated late. On the other hand, on the day of the American elections, the main Russian media Russia 1 released old photos of Melania Trump. A provocation that could cost Moscow dearly, given the unpredictability of Donald Trump.

Translated and adapted from German by Tanja Maeder