Well yes, nothing has been decided yet.
If until a few hours ago, the projections of the most authoritative models were all more or less aligned towards fully winter weather conditions, the very latest interpolations do not allow reservations to be lifted. Indeed, there are some forecast models that have difficulty scanning the Anticyclone. Or rather, according to this last hypothesis, the Scandinavian Arctic depression – which is largely confirmed anyway – would have difficulty pushing itself further souththus directing cold air over the Mediterranean.
So, according to this “view”, the irruption would not succeed in penetrating widely into our country, barely touching the northern regions. On the other hand, there are those who continue straight on their path, that is to say, offering us a full commitment from Italy with two distinct cold impulses : the first in the middle of next week, day plus day minus, the second shortly after and therefore during the next weekend. At this point, it is legitimate to wonder who and why will be right… So, let’s start from a postulate: the reliability of models.
The computing center which continues to pursue the cold path is the European one, considered by experts – with supporting statistics – as the most reliable in the circus. Well, this computing center has published a broadcast which confirms the previous ones, it even seems to want to add more in terms of cold and precipitation. Therefore, we are inclined to give credence to this hypothesis, except that we cannot close our eyes and pretend that the other solution does not exist. We are talking about the American projectionwho – after having long supported the cold thesis – is reviewing his position.
As said, a turnaround dictated by the greater anticyclonic interference and the less intrusive capacity of the Arctic irruption.
Let’s say the two things would go hand in hand. Do you want to know what we think? Let’s be frank, given that in Europe it is often the continental model that prevails, we are inclined to give more credit to the arrival of winter, or at least to a first before -significant taste of the winter season.
Yes, because in addition to the thermal fall, a significant wave of bad weather could develop, in turn bringing violent phenomena and even snowfall at unexpected altitudes. Of course, if this computing center had to also turn to other solutions, we would be the first to inform you and that would mean that this time, it was the American colleague who would have “won” the game.
Will this be the case? Won’t that be the case? Have a little more patience, when we enter the forecast field – around 4 days before the events – we will be able to definitively lift the reservations.
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