Is your purchasing plan in danger?

Is your purchasing plan in danger?
Is your purchasing plan in danger?

After the announcement of the results of the legislative elections on June 9, the President of the Republic decided to dissolve the National Assembly.

A surprise announcement that shook up the financial markets. “Since Monday, look, interest rates have been increasing, the markets are panicking, European and international partners are worried. (…) Access to credit will cost more, the rate for access to housing will be more expensive,” he warned during his press conference on June 12 if the National Rally (RN) came to government , highlighting his “incoherent project. »

Will this really have an impact on credit rates? Response elements.

A 10-year OAT rises following the announcement of the dissolution

The 10-year government borrowing rate (OAT * 10 years), serving as a reference for individual credit rates, increased following the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly.

According to the Banque de France, it rose from 3.1184 on June 7 to 3.2394 on June 10 and to 3.2399 on June 11, or approximately +0.12 points. As of June 5, it was below 3%.

According to Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for the loan broker Vousfinancer, “it’s the surprise effect of a decision that was not anticipated. Financial markets hate the unexpected. »

Conversely, the downgrading of France’s rating at the beginning of June by the American rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had been anticipated, as well as the reduction in key rates from the European Central Bank (ECB).

“Which had no impact on the 10-year OAT”, she notices.

An impact to be qualified

As of June 12, the 10-year OAT has calmed down, returning to around 3.15. This rate should remain stable at least until the first round of the legislative elections.

“For credit rates, it doesn’t make sense to look at these mini-variations,” she notes. “Moreover, for several months, banks have been freeing themselves a little from state borrowing rates. »

Previously, it was customary to say that a point of difference was needed between the 10-year OAT and the 10-year credit rate granted for banks to have sufficient margin (for example a credit rate of 4, 15 for a 10-year OAT at 3.15).

“This is less the case today, because they calculate their margins on loan insurance in particular. What matters is attracting new customers through borrowing,” explains Sandrine Allonier. “Being behind on their objectives, they are ready to cut their margins for the borrower profiles that interest them. »

Same story from Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies for the broker Empruntis. : “As we arrive at summer, a less favorable period, we should not have an immediate impact on credit rates. »

What is a little more worrying, the gap with German rates

According to Sandrine Allonier, it is the gap between French borrowing rates and German borrowing rates which is “a little more worrying. »

There is currently a difference of 0.80%, as during the 2017 presidential elections, which announced Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Marine Le Pen in the second round.

“If the gap is too large, investors move their position, moving towards German bonds”, observe-t-elle.

The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, indicated that he feared a financial crisis in France if the RN or the left came to power.

If the RN comes to government

“If a party that has never governed comes to government in the second round of the legislative elections on July 8, then the consequences could be stronger”, says Sandrine Allonier.

The 10-year OAT could rise sharply. “If it exceeds 3.5, then this could have an impact on credit rates,” she announces.

The impact of the extreme right or the extreme left, depending on the place they occupy in government, would be the same.

“If our country is judged to be politically and economically unstable, the OAT will increase. And there we will have an impact on credits, at least a halt to the decline or an increase in rates,” indicates Cécile Roquelaure.

In addition, the real estate market could seize up again due to a wait-and-see phenomenon. “Buyers could be tempted to wait for certain measures. In terms of real estate, the RN, for example, proposes to set up a zero-rate loan (PTZ) of €100,000,” indicates Sandrine Allonier. “Due to the political context, investors could turn away from France. There would be fewer transactions, which would trigger a drop in property prices. And banks could lend less depending on the employment policy pursued by the new government. »

Change in the fall?

While brokers were considering credit rates of 3.30% at the end of the year, there are still many unknowns. The ECB is expected to continue its monetary easing policy.

“Credit rates should instead stabilize. The banks are still sending us attractive scales, they will not go up overnight. We lack visibility at the moment,” says Sandrine Allonier. The next few months will tell us more…

*Assimilable Treasury bonds

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