COTidienne | Cereals – Another marked drop in US wheat prices

THE prix of the main futures contracts on the wheat have again lost ground significantly on the futures market CBOT between November 12 and 13. The December deadline is back at the level of 541 cts$/bushel and that of March (the most traded) has fallen below 560 cts$/bushel. The reduction, valid for all maturities, is between 9.5 and 11.25 cts/bushel. On Euronextthe wheat contract lost ground, a little more than the day before, particularly on the close. The courses of but on the futures markets also lost some ground. The December contract fell below €210/t and the March contract was close to €220/t.
In the weekly position report of Euronext traders, as of Friday November 8, we note that so-called financial operators increased their net short position in wheat (by around 12,000 lots) to reach around -143,000 lots and on the https://www.reussir.fr/ladepeche/ble corn (around 700 lots) to reach around -2,600 lots.
On the markets hexagonal physical figures, the prices of soft wheat, corn andbarley fodder lost ground while those of durum wheat progressed a little.

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The dollar still puts pressure on the markets, due to its strength in the face ofeuro and most others devises while the sales of corn are always supported at the start of UNITED STATES. Theoretically, this decline of the euro against the dollar (parity at $1.056 on Wednesday against $1.062 on Tuesday) should favor exports European. The wheat and corn futures markets were driven by technical sales and investment fund bellies across the Atlantic. There harvest of corn could end this week in the United States. We are expecting an update of the corn balance sheets from Brazilian Conab this Thursday. On the wheat side, global operators are keeping a close eye on growing conditionstherefore meteorology, in Europe, Russia and Ukraine.

In Francethe specialized “Large crops” consultancy of FranceAgriMer published its monthly cereal balance sheet updates this Wednesday, November 13 (see Fundamentals below). On the export side, the situation is evolving as follows: the organization forecasts 130,000 t less on soft wheat exports for the current campaign (including -100 kt to third countries, with the absence ofAlgeria which is now being felt) while sales to the European Union are revised to show a very slight increase in barley. Corn exports are revised upwards (+75 kt, including 55 kt to the EU). Regarding Algeria, Benoît Piètrement, president of the specialized “Large crops” council of FranceAgriMer, indicates that“it is now necessary to find new markets and maintain our traditional markets” for the current campaign.

The courses of oil recovered on Wednesday, “encouraged by an American price index which does not call into question the hypothesis of a continuation of the ongoing monetary easing, itself a factor supporting demand for black gold”, according to the AFP. France has also clarified, via its Prime Minister Michel Barnier, that it “will not accept theEU-Mercosur free trade agreement in current conditions” following a meeting with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, again according to AFP. The GDP for the third quarter of the euro zone is published today by Eurostat and the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting early this afternoon. L’International Energy Agency also publishes its monthly oil report.

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Fundamentals:

• France, soft wheat, production : revised month-on-month increase of 127 kt for 2024-2025, to 25.555 Mt, down 27% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, soft wheat, uses : revised month-on-month decrease of 181 kt for 2024-2025, to 24.141 Mt, down 23% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, soft wheat, final stock : revised upwards from one month to the next by 272 kt for 2024-2025, to 2.784 Mt, down 12% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, barley, production : revised month-on-month decrease of 52 kt for 2024-2025, to 9.853 Mt, down 20% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, barley, uses : reviews up month-on-month by 38 kt for 2024-2025, 8,403 Mt, down 19% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, barley, final stock : revised upwards from one month to the next by 10 kt for 2024-2025, 1.362 Mt, up 7% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, corn, production : revised month-on-month increase of 160 kt for 2024-2025, to 13.635 Mt, up 13% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, corn, uses : reviews up month-on-month by 275 kt for 2024-2025, to 11.756 Mt, up 11% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, corn, final stock : revised downward from one month to the next by 83 Kt for 2024-2025, to 2.36 Mt, up 18% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, durum wheat, production : revised month-on-month increase of 6 kt for 2024-2025, to 1.217 Mt, down 6% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, durum wheat, uses : reviews up month-on-month by 4 Kt for 2024-2025, to 1.295 Mt, down 20% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• France, durum wheat, final stock : revised upwards from one month to the next by 5 kt for 2024-2025, to 145 Kt, up 4% compared to 2023-2024 (source: FranceAgriMer);
• Ukraine, wheat, production: revised to 21.1 Mt for 2025, down compared to the five-year average (source: SovEcon).

Commerce international :

• United States, corn, export sales : 401,357 t to Mexico and 290,820 t to an unspecified destination, for delivery in 2024-2025 (source: USDA).

European export and import as of November 10:
(source: European Commission)

French physical markets from November 13, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Quotations of milling products from November 12, 2024

Commercial quotes for dairy products from November 7, 2024

Evolution dollar / euro du 13 novembre 2024

Chicago Futures Market Closes November 13, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on November 13, 2024

International market quotes from November 13, 2024