Paris: The International Energy Agency (IEA) revises slightly upwards its forecasts for an increase in oil demand in 2024, while warning that the trend is towards a “significant slowdown” in the growth of gold consumption black, which could experience an excess supply in 2025, according to its monthly report published Thursday. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 920,000 barrels per day this year, to reach 102.8 million barrels per day (mb/d MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) of Barrels (crude oil) per Dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equivalent to 159 liters or 42 American gallons.), or an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day compared to the October estimate, says the OECD Energy Agency.
This adjustment is explained “largely thanks to larger-than-expected OECD diesel deliveries in the third quarter“, according to the IEA, which reviews its forecasts monthly depending on the economic situation.
For 2025, the estimated growth in black gold consumption is “essentially unchanged” less than one million barrels per day (990,000), which would bring daily global consumption to 103.8 million barrels.
The rate of growth in demand less than 1 mb/d MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) of Barrels (crude oil) per Dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equivalent to 159 liters or 42 American gallons. for these years 2024/2025 “marks a significant slowdown from the 2 mb/d increase MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) of Barrels (crude oil) per Dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equivalent to 159 liters or 42 American gallons. in 2023“, specified the IEA.
The expected level of consumption of black gold “once again reflects below-normal underlying global economic conditions“, the end of the post-Covid-19 demand catch-up while “rapid deployment“electric vehicles”also moderates growth in oil consumption“, explained the IEA.
The oil market is trending downward due to the slowdown in China, the world’s leading importer of oil, weighed down by sluggish consumption. Oil prices remain at relatively low levels. Around 06:30 GMT, the barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. of the North Sea receded by 0,61%has 71,84 dollars.
In this bearish context, the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers decided on November 3 to postpone by one month a planned increase in production, which would not occur before January. It will hold its meeting on December 1 to review the market outlook and its production plans for 2025.
But according to IEA estimates, even if the production cuts established by OPEC+ to support prices remained in place, “global supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year“.
???????? “Global oil supply is increasing at a steady pace“, indicated the IEA, referring to the re-election of Donald Trump, favorable to oil expansion.
“Following the American elections“, the IEA therefore expects the United States to be the main contributor to the increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries estimated at 1.5 mb/d MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) of Barrels (crude oil) per Dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equivalent to 159 liters or 42 American gallons. in 2024/25.
(c) AFP
Commenter ???? Growth in oil demand marks “a significant slowdown” (IEA)
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