CBOT wheat futures are losing nearly 1.5% today, falling to $540 ahead of tomorrow’s rollover, under pressure from a strong US dollar.
- Rain continues to feature in the seven-day forecast, with much of the Southern Plains and eastern half of the United States expected to fall between 1 and 2 inches.
- Weekly crop status data shows that as of 10/11, 91% of winter wheat was planted, with emergence of 76%, 2 and 3 points above normal.
- Condition ratings improved by 3% to 44% gd/ex and the Brugler500 index, which tracks crop condition, rose 10 points today to 326 – well above normal but not very high.
- Rains ease drought for wheat from Nebraska to Texas. According to American meteorologists, ClimatePredict suggests improving weather conditions for parts of Ukraine and for Russian wheat. The AO index is slightly decreasing today (negative correlation with precipitation, signaling possible rain in Russia).
- Current commodity projections indicate that if La Niña does not form, long-term wheat prices are likely to suffer.
Russian company Rusagrotrans predicts that the area under wheat cultivation in Russia in 2025/26 will be the lowest since the 2018/19 season, at 15.4 million hectares (38.1 million acres). However, the market is reacting to shorter-term factors, somewhat ignoring the uncertain long-term outlook for wheat. The strengthening dollar affects the CBOT, reducing global demand for “expensive” US wheat.
Speculative long positions in wheat are extremely small; short positions stopped falling. Looking at the position history, it can be assumed that the overall positioning is fairly well balanced between oversold and overbought levels. Source : XTB Research : XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P., CFTC Commitment of Traders
Source: xStation5
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