According to the real estate situation note from the Notaries of France published at the end of October, the real estate market in the former “ finally seems to be beginning the end of the bearish cycle after two years of brutal and dizzying fall “. In fact, if the volume of transactions remains very low, the decline has started to slow down slightly.
Sales volume remains very low
At the end of August 2024, the volume of old housing transactions in France (excluding Mayotte) reached 780,000 transactions over one year, which represents an annual drop of 18.1%: the drop has therefore fallen below the 20% mark for the second month in a row. At this rate, “ the year should end above 700,000 transactions, which remains a low point not reached since May 2015 “. The stabilization of inflation and the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower its key rates could facilitate access to credit in the months to come, while notaries are still observing a significant number of loan refusals. Likewise, the announced extension of the zero-interest loan (PTZ) to the entire territory should help first-time buyers, in tense and relaxed areas.
The fall in prices continues
In mainland France, prices of old housing decreased for the fourth consecutive quarter over one year, at -5%, from April to June 2024, for apartments and houses. This second quarter, they fell by 4.3% year-on-year in the regions, and by 7.2% in Île-de-France. In Paris, the price of old apartments is expected to stagnate at 9,430 euros/m² in November. According to notaries, this downward trend could end up stabilizing in the months to come. “According to projections on pre-contracts, the annual drop in prices of old housing in mainland France should gradually attenuate significantly with -2.6% at the end of November 2024. »
The impact of the “green value” of housing
Another observation drawn up by French notaries in their economic report: the share of energy-intensive housing (classified F and G) sold remains at a high level and the impact of the Energy Performance Diagnostic (EPD) energy label on the price housing is increasingly important.
« In the first half of 2024, with a high proportion of sales of the most energy-intensive old housing, the distribution of sales according to the energy label in mainland France (excluding Corsica) follows the trend for the year 2023 – which reached 17%, i.e. one of the highest levels over the decade. » In 2023, the median price of the most energy-efficient old housing has better resisted the decline (+1% for apartments and +2% for houses), unlike the price of the most energy-intensive housing (respectively, -6% and -3%). Finally, the impact of the energy label can also vary depending on the territory. “ Occitanie and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur stand out for a sharp increase in the added value of the most economical old apartments. »
