The objective of reducing the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 55% between 1990 and 2030 is “attainable”, by accelerating the development of mature technologies such as solar, wind or electric cars, Engie is moving forward in its new decarbonization scenario for Europe submitted on Tuesday, November 12.
“Europe must stay the course”, insisted Catherine MacGregor, general director of the French energy company Engie, Europe’s leading gas company.
More than the decarbonization objectives for 2030, uncertainty weighs especially for 2050. At that date, carbon neutrality will be unattainable without the deployment of technologies still at the initial stage of development, such as carbon capture and storage, notes Engie in its scenario based on fifteen European countries, covering 85% of the energy consumption of the Old Continent.
No 2040 objective
To avoid confusing the messages, Catherine MacGregor recommends not setting, for the moment, a European emissions reduction objective for 2040.
To date, the European Commission, which is currently being renewed, does not have an official objective. Only discussions that were successful at the start of the year indicated a possible target of -90% for 2040.
But according to Nicolas Lefevre-Marton, director of strategy at Engie, “going to -90% would imply a significant additional cost”. Rather, the energy company presented a “optimized trajectory” of -84%.
Demand flexibility
Engie also insists on the need to develop flexibility of demand, that is to say optimization of energy consumption. A lack in this area could lead to an additional cost of decarbonization of around 150 billion euros per year, insists the energy company.
Without guaranteeing the veracity of the amounts announced, “not developing flexibility at its fair value will be very expensive, and probably from 2030, if the EU moves towards a 69% renewable mix [dans la production d’électricité, comme inscrit dans le plan REPowerEU] »assures for Euractiv Andreas Rudinger, energy researcher at the French think tank IDDRI.
Moreover, Engie is rather counting on 60% renewables in the EU’s electricity production in 2030, while the Brussels think tank specializing in energy, Ember, is working on 66%.
Electricity, gas and hydrogen
These figures are more or less in line with the electrification rate of the mix proposed by Engie of 48% in 2050, also shared by TotalEnergies in its latest study in November. The rest is provided by 32% gas (carbon-free methane, carbon-free hydrogen) and 15% waste heat.
On hydrogen in particular, Engie is recording the decrease in previous deployment objectives. As a reminder, the EU audit court requested a “ back to reality » on the objectives for 2030 to import and produce in equal parts 20 million tonnes of carbon-free hydrogen.
By 2050, the energy company now expects 70% of carbon-free hydrogen to be produced in Europe. “ Imports will mainly be devoted to e-fuels », want to believe the company’s strategists.
Carbon floor price
To support and encourage decarbonization, Engie recommends the establishment of a carbon floor price, including “ the objective is at least to discourage the use of coal », Estimates the strategists.
This would be possible from around 30 euros per tonne, calculates for Euractiv Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, researcher in energy policy at the Jacques Delors Institute. To decarbonize effectively, however, it recommends a price around 60 euros in 2030, then 110 euros in 2050, as recommended by Engie.
Downside, the opening of the carbon market to transport and residential heating from 2027 would imply a convergence of prices per tonne between all the areas covered by the carbon markets. However, 110 euros per ton for these last two areas “ is unthinkable », notes for Euractiv Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at the progressive think tank TerraNova.
« The economic and political risk of reaching this level in a short time is too great for Europeans », he concludes.
