While COP29 is being held in an oil and gas country, global greenhouse gas emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels are increasing again. They are expected to increase by 0.8% between 2023 and 2024, according to the latest study by the Global Carbon Budget unveiled Wednesday November 13. This is the global report on greenhouse gas emissions for 2023 produced by the Global Carbon Project. It also gives the trends for the year 2024. Thus, for the current year, 37.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the use of fossil fuels should be emitted. What leads the 120 scientists who authored the study Global Carbon Budget published this Wednesday in the magazine Earth System Science Data to issue an unequivocal warning: “At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates there is a 50% chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently within about six years. »
More fossil fuels, fewer natural terrestrial carbon sinks
In addition, the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists which provides an almost real-time overview of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, notes that not only have energy-related emissions increased, but also those linked to changes in land use, that is to say all emissions generated by the degradation or disappearance of plant biomass which stores carbon. In short, deforestation and land degradation have emitted an additional 4.2 billion tonnes of CO2. This brings total global CO2 emissions to 41.6 billion tonnes for 2024, compared to 40.6 billion for 2023.
The authors note that over the past decade, until now only energy emissions have increased. However, for the first time in 2023, those linked to land use change are on the rise, due to human activities, as well as droughts. “ We know that the absorption of CO2 by the continental part of the vegetation is itself very dependent on the climate. In dry, hot years, like El Nino years, continents stop absorbing carbon”says Philippe Ciais, researcher at the Climate and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (LSCE) and author of the report Global Carbon Budget.
As a result, CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Its concentration, measured in PPM or parts per million, will reach 422.5 PPM in 2024. This is the highest level in the history of humanity. “ There is a quasi-linear relationship between the total amount of carbon we emit and global warming », recalls Philippe Ciais who believes that unless CO2 is removed from the atmosphere, it seems unrealistic to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. He specifies that at the current rate, it would take a quarter of a century to reachthestraight and exceed 2 degrees. Philippe Ciais, from LSCE adds: “ Until we achieve net-zero global CO2 emissions, global temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly serious consequences. »
A boom in fossil emissions in developing countries…
The 6% decline in energy-related emissions recorded in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic had raised hopes. “ Everyone was wondering if we were going to see green growth, a decarbonization of the economy, or even changes in lifestyles. », declares Philippe Ciais of LSCE before concluding that “ this did not happen. ». Since emissions have started to rise again: 1% per year. In 2023, India saw its emissions increase by 8% while China’s emissions increased by 4.9%. European Union emissions fell by 3.8%. India now emits more greenhouse gases than Europe, but an Indian pollutes less than a European if we compare this figure to the number of inhabitants. Thus, China represents 32% of global greenhouse gas emissions, followed by the United States (13%), India (8%) and Europe (7%).
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Then, the data from Global Carbone Budget show that coal still represents 41% of CO2 emissions, followed by oil (32%) and natural gas (21%). However, it is interesting to note that emissions growth for coal is 0.2% between 2023 and 2024, 0.9% for oil and 2.4% for natural gas. In fact, coal-fired electricity production is gradually stabilizing around the world while oil still remains an energy in high demand for transport, although there is a boom in electric mobility. Natural gas is used for heating or to produce electricity by replacing coal, because it emits less than the latter. Natural gas is therefore often presented as “ a transitional energy “, even if he does ” increase the CO2 level in the atmosphere,” recalls Philippe Ciais.
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Concerning transport, the Global Carbon Project also writes that “ international aviation and shipping (3% of the global total which are counted separately from national/regional totals) is expected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but will remain 3.5% below its pre-pandemic level of 2019. »
…but an energy transition in progress
The complexity of the climate added to the many factors that come into play, including policies as well as the economic situation of nations, however, encourages us to nuance this rather gloomy picture at first glance. Climate action, particularly through the prism of decarbonization of the economy, is progressing, and is showing results that translate into a slowdown in the increase in emissions. “ Despite a further rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows signs of widespread climate action, with growing penetration of renewable energy and electric cars replacing fossil fuels, as well as a decline in emissions linked to deforestation in recent decades, confirmed for the first time », comments climate scientist Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the UEA School of Environmental Sciences.
According to Pierre Friedlingstein, coordinator of the Global Carbon Project, developments show thate’ « it is possible to decarbonize the economy without having a recession, but it is not going fast enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. » However, he notes that “ overall, the world is moving in the right direction” due to the global slowdown in greenhouse gas emissions from 2% per year on average 2 decades ago to 0.6% in recent years.
[À lire aussi Patrick Criqui, directeur de recherche au CNRS à propos des enjeux de la COP29 : « réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre est moins coûteux dans les pays du Sud que dans les pays du Nord »]
This global carbon assessment is published at a pivotal moment, between a COP29 which is struggling to convince on financial commitments and the exit from fossil fuels, the multiplication of natural disasters and the election of Donald Trump. “ The election of Trump questions the international governance of climate action. Even if under his first mandate American emissions had decreased in particular due to the competitiveness of renewable energies compared to coal, his election can have a broader impact. Because, if the United States, which is a historic emitter, does nothing, this will perhaps serve as an excuse for other countries not to commit to reducing fossil fuels. », comments Philippe Ciai when asked about the news, emphasizing that climate action does not depend only on a single person but also on socio-economic factors.
Finally, the report focuses on the absorption of CO2. It clearly indicates that it will not be enough to deal with the crisis. It will be necessary to reduce the use of oil, gas and coal, three energies responsible for 90% of CO2 emissions and which the natural carbon cycle is no longer able to regulate on its own. For example, the elimination of CO2 through reforestation only offsets half of the emissions linked to deforestation. Even if technological solutions exist to capture or eliminate CO2 in the atmosphere, they represent only a very minimal part of climate action which, moreover, does not take away from the urgent need to reduce emissions and therefore dependence on fossil fuels. According to the authors of the study, “ Current levels of carbon dioxide removal through technology (excluding natural means such as reforestation) can only offset one millionth of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. »
Julien Leprovost
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To go further
The 19e edition of the study Global Carbon Budget published this Wednesday in the journal Earth System Science Data (in English) ESSD – 404
The GLOBAL CARBON ATLAS website and the GCP website: Global Carbon Project
The GoodPlanet Foundation’s Carbon Calculators to calculate your carbon footprint whether you are an individual or a business
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