After a year of sluggish sales, the Tampa Bay real estate market risks plunging further in the coming months, as residents face the dramatic consequences of two powerful hurricanes one after the other, Helene and Milton.
Tampa Bay: evolution over the last five years
While last year saw a slight decline in the median price of single-family homes in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-1.4%), we must keep in mind that prices had increased by +65% over the last five years, from $248,000 to $409,000. Because of these high prices and a relatively low inventory of goods for sale, sales are down -17% over the past year, according to a Tampa Bay Times article by Rebecca Liebson, published October 30, 2024 .
Between sky-high prices, high insurance premiums and costly property taxes, many buyers in New York or California were hesitant to invest. Hurricanes risk forcing them to cancel their plans.
Hesitant sellers
As Craig Beggins, CEO of Century 21 Beggins, points out, with so many homes made unlivable by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, “the housing inventory shortage is even more serious.” Even sellers whose houses have been superficially damaged are hesitant to put them up for sale, because they fear not finding a new house to buy. Others fear they won’t be able to get the best price right now.
What about damaged properties?
“As-is” property listings (as-is) or “at the value of the land” (for land value) flower. Some owners resign themselves to selling at a loss. Caution must be exercised, so as not to accept any offer that is too fast and too low in cash.
Beggins recommends waiting for the next few months to find out whether the damages reimbursed by the insurance company will be able to finance a partial or total reconstruction of the damaged property or not.
What consequences for the coastal property market
in Florida?
According to Jennifer Zales, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker who specializes in luxury coastal properties, there should be no exodus inland. On the other hand, buyers will opt for newer, elevated homes, and they will be willing to pay more for peace of mind. Moreover, she declares, requests for construction of new houses have increased significantly in recent weeks.
What solutions for owners?
This involves investing in wind mitigation strategies (wind mitigation) which are effective: hurricane-proof windows, without forgetting the doors and especially the garage door; recent roofs; and find out about the financing assistance that is possible from the Florida government on their site
https://floridapace.gov/.
The problem is more complex for houses placed in flood zones, but elevation strategies (Flood Protection Elevation) and water attenuation (water mitigation) can be considered. Taking out good flood insurance also remains a priority.
A quick rebound
Traditionally the market rebounds quickly after a climatic disaster, in just a few months, and specialists expect the same phenomenon in Tampa Bay. According to an analysis by the Tampa Bay Times, a year after Hurricane Ian hit in 2022, homes in Lee County that were the most damaged and located in flood zones sold for +9% compared to the previous year.
