The Russian army seems to be making slow progress in recent weeks. On the front, Ukrainian troops are retreating in multiple sectors in eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops are advancing. On Sunday, November 10, Russia claimed the conquest of a new village, that of Vovtchenka, in the Ukrainian region of Donetsk (east). Furthermore, thousands of North Korean soldiers are, according to kyiv and the West, deployed in the Russian region of Kursk. An offensive strategy which can be explained by several factors.
Take as much land as possible before winter
In the opinion of many military experts, if the Russian army is pushing into the Donbass by increasing its offensives in recent weeks, it is first and foremost because it is seeking to take advantage of its advantage. She wants to gain as much ground as possible before the arrival of winter, which will tend to freeze both the ground and the positions. In October, the Russian army made its biggest territorial gains since the summer of 2022, seizing more than 400 km² of territory, according to some observers. These losses were not recognized by the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainian chief of staff, Oleksandr Syrsky, however admitted that the situation on the front was difficult and that, in certain areas, a constant renewal of units was necessary to face Russian attacks. “In accordance with the orders of their military leaders, they are trying to dislodge our troops and advance deep into the territory that we control”wrote General Syrsky on Monday on the messaging application Telegram.
This Russian strategy would be particularly deadly: according to British intelligence, the Russian army was losing, in October, 1,500 soldiers per day, killed or wounded. Unverifiable figures since the two camps do not communicate on their losses. But the Russian army, which has a larger human reservoir, does not hesitate, sometimes, to sacrifice entire units in an offensive. The Russian army is therefore approaching the strategic city of Pokrovsk, which it has made its priority objective and which would allow it to envisage the total conquest of the Donbass, which Moscow claims.
Arriving in a position of strength in the event of the opening of peace negotiations
Russia is seeking to conquer as much ground as possible to be in a position of strength in the event of the possible opening of negotiations. This vision of Moscow was developed last week by Sergei Shoigu, the former Minister of Defense. He urged opening negotiations or risk seeing the Ukrainian army being overwhelmed. Russia says to itself that, perhaps, Donald Trump will go so far as to twist Ukraine’s arm to sit at the negotiating table. Moscow has already set its conditions, and they clearly resemble a surrender of Ukraine. Russia claims the four annexed regions, which it does not fully control, and a sort of neutralization of Ukraine.
Weighing in before Trump comes to power
But the Trump administration is not settled and has not said clearly what it intends to do on the Ukrainian file. During the American presidential campaign, the president-elect increased threats of disengagement from the Atlantic Alliance, of which the United States is the main contributor. He also denounced, on several occasions, the billions spent by his country to help kyiv, promising to end the war in 24 hours. According to The Washington PostVladimir Putin and Donald Trump had a telephone conversation on Thursday during which the future American president asked his Russian counterpart not to provoke an escalation in Ukraine. The Kremlin denied this information on Monday.
In the meantime, Moscow is doing everything to insist on its supposed wishes. “We see positive signals”said Dimitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, last weekend. But as things currently stand, there is nothing to say that Donald Trump will cut support for Ukraine, which would have the primary consequence of strengthening Vladimir Putin.
