a program so expensive that the RN prunes it

a program so expensive that the RN prunes it
a program so expensive that the RN prunes it

The RN’s promises fade away as the campaign progresses. On the eve of the weekend, Jordan Bardella heavily insisted on the degraded situation of public finances, suggesting that Marine Le Pen’s program would not be applicable Verbatim lack of means. The president of the RN even imagined that the situation would be worse than it appears today: “I am certain, when we arrive at the head of state, that we will discover a lot of files in the cupboards”, he fantasized on BFMTV on Friday. A way to evacuate the untenable promises of his party or to prevent the sanction of the markets.

Legislative survey: one in two French people fears a victory for the RN

Without putting forward the slightest new recipe, nor the slightest economy, Bardella pushed back sine die several commitments, including tax exemption for those under 30 as well as the rebate of charges on salary increases of up to 10%, and it remained unclear on the return to the legal age of 60 for retirement, Marine Le Pen’s historic promise. We no longer hear about the reduction in VAT on 100 essential products or the nationalization of motorways. The 2022 project of the candidate for the Élysée had been estimated at an exorbitant total of 120 billion euros by the Montaigne Institute, it will undoubtedly be less this time.

The far-right party, however, has not renounced very costly and questionable measures. In the event of victory in the legislative elections, he intends to reduce VAT on fuel, fuel oil, gas and electricity from the summer. A measure supposed to support the purchasing power of the most modest – even though it is above all that of the well-off categories, the most consuming, who would benefit, as the work of the Court of Auditors has shown. The transition from the normal VAT rate (20%) to the reduced rate (5.5%) would be included in an amending finance law presented in July. Its budgetary cost is estimated by Bercy at 16.8 billion euros over a full year.

The 2022 project of Marine Le Pen, then a candidate for the Élysée, was estimated at an exorbitant total of 120 billion euros.

The Senate dominated by LR or a joint committee must also validate this project, knowing full well that it contravenes European rules. In fact, VAT rates are harmonized between Member States, to avoid dumping. The products and services entitled to reduced rates are included in a list negotiated between EU countries: food, medicines, books, etc. The last negotiation, in 2022, kept fuels out of it. In fact, a boost to unleaded or Diesel would be contradictory with the imperatives of decarbonization and the objective of banning new thermal vehicles in 2035.

The risk of sanctions and fines

Consequently, a reduction in VAT on gasoline in France would require an agreement from other Member States or a temporary derogation from the European Commission, which seems highly unlikely. A more likely scenario is that France risks exposing itself to a sanction procedure which could result in a fine. These are not the only expensive measures, far from it. The leader of the RN maintained, for an application ” in a second time “, the idea of ​​revising the pension reform. The legal age would fall to 60 for long careers (started before age 20) with 40 years of contributions.

For people who started working after 20 years, there would be “a progressiveness”, that is to say a higher legal age, which was already in the RN program in 2022. Will it be a maximum of 64 years as today, or 62 years? Two years ago, Marine Le Pen intended to maintain a departure at 62 for those who have completed long studies. The cost was estimated by the Montaigne Institute at 26.5 billion euros (9.6 billion according to the RN). Jordan Bardella seems to have undermined his boss’s ambition, or put forward a dubious figure, by estimating on BFMTV that the cost of the system would be limited to 1.6 billion euros.

How will these measures be financed? Although revised downwards, the RN’s spending will further derail public accounts, exposing the country to higher interest rates or unacknowledged tax increases and, like the left, it will put the unity of the EU in danger. The party promises that it will obtain additional revenue with the fight against fraud (gains which are always uncertain) and that it will cut spending linked to immigration such as the AME (1.2 billion). It has always been his financial martingale…



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