Winter 2024-2025 is upon us, and expectations on the meteorological front are more ambivalent than ever. In Italy, as in the rest of Europe, attention is focused on what will happen with the Polar Vortex, an atmospheric phenomenon that dominates climatic dynamics during the coldest months of the year.
This year, the interaction with La Niña could upset the balance, altering usual weather patterns and giving rise to a very unusual winter.
The Polar Vortex is a large area of low pressure located above the North Pole that acts as a sort of container for cold air masses.
In recent seasons we have witnessed a particularly compact and resistant Vortex, which has blocked the flow of cold currents to lower latitudes, including Italy.
This favored the predominance of High Pressure over a large part of Europe, determining mild and dry winters, with temperatures well above seasonal averages.
The lack of snow and frost has been particularly evident in mountainous regions, causing problems not only for winter tourism but also for water supplies.
La Niña and the possible weakening of the Polar Vortex
This year, however, there is hope for a trend reversal.
The presence of La Niña, which causes cooling of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, could have significant effects on the Polar Vortex, making it less stable and more susceptible to early ruptures.
A less compact Vortex could allow the infiltration of cold air masses towards the south, affecting central and southern Europe.
December could already hold surprises, with possible cold incursions that could reach Italy, bringing snowfall not only to the Alps, but also to the Apennines and, in exceptional cases, even to the Tyrrhenian coastal areas.
The cities of Rome and Naples, for example, could see snow, a rare event that doesn’t happen often.
The effect of La Niña could continue by also influencing the months of January and February, with a winter that promises to be variable and dynamic.
January and February: cold months
The forecast for January and February is uncertain, but many weather models suggest we could see alternating periods of intense cold and abnormal heat waves.
Temperatures could swing considerably, moving from episodes of arctic freezing to periods characterized by High Pressure which would bring back milder temperatures.
The risk of a cold snap from Siberia, similar to Buran, is real. If the Polar Vortex were to fragment, it could release masses of frigid air that would sweep across Eastern Europe, reaching Italy with heavy snowfall down to low altitudes, particularly over the Adriatic and southern regions.
Significant snowfall cannot be ruled out even in Sicily and Sardinia, two islands which have seen little trace of snow in recent years.
Despite the possibility of cold outbreaks, winter could still present periods of High Pressure, during which temperatures remain above average.
This could cause heavy rain and intense winds, especially along the Tyrrhenian coasts and the two Big Islands.
Atlantic disturbances could find space during these milder intervals, bringing significant precipitation.
Snow on the coasts not so impossible
One of the most surprising features of Winter 2024-2025 could be the possibility of snowfall along the coasts.
Although the influence of the sea generally moderates temperatures, a particularly unstable Polar Vortex could push cold air to coastal areas.
Imagine a city like Civitavecchia or Livorno under the snow: a rare but not impossible scenario, especially if the month of February turns out to be particularly harsh.
February is often the coldest month of winter, and this year could bring extreme conditions, with snowstorms in the Apennines and heavy snowfall in the hilly areas of the Center-South.
High Pressure could temporarily ease the cold, but if it were to suddenly weaken, we could see bursts of arctic air capable of bringing frost to unusually mild areas.
The Azores High: a key role
Another key factor in the evolution of winter will be the behavior of the Azores Anticyclone.
Traditionally, this High Pressure system protects southern Europe from cold incursions, but its movement could have significant effects.
If the Anticyclone were positioned over the central Atlantic, it could leave room for cold disturbances coming from the Arctic or even Siberia.
An Anticyclone in an abnormal position could also favor the arrival of Atlantic disturbances, bringing intense rain and heavy snowfall to mountainous areas.
In this scenario, regions such as Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna and Marche could be affected by heavy snowfall, while southern Italy could experience episodes of rain mixed with snow.
Winter 2024-2025 therefore seems to be a season of contrasts, where High Pressure, Polar Vortex and Anticyclone will collide to determine the meteorological destiny of Europe and Italy.
The next few months will show us if this winter will really be memorable or if we will again find ourselves facing a year of mild weather conditions.
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