9 November. 7:30 p.m. Brighton. Stade de Falmer
Premier League. 11th day
Brighton vs. Manchester City
Where to watch: Setanta Sports
Absent: None
Injured: Joao Pedro, Yankuba Minte, Matt O’Reilly, Lewis Dunk, Yasin Ayari (tous incertains), Solomon March, Adam Webster, James Milner – Oscar Bobb, Rodri, John Stones, Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias
Brighton vs Manchester City: Bookmaker Odds
Brighton have lost five of their last six meetings against Manchester City without managing to secure a single victory. This Saturday, the Seagulls have a great opportunity to end their disappointing run against the reigning champions. There is no better time for this.
Manchester City
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Manchester City is currently going through its worst period in eight years. Pep Guardiola’s side have lost three consecutive games in all competitions, with each of those defeats no fluke. On the contrary, each meeting further highlights the systemic problems facing the Citizens – mainly in defense, previously masked by the exceptional form of Erling Haaland and the high individual quality of their attackers.
Last week against Bournemouth, Manchester City conceded six direct attacks (when an opponent wins the ball in their own half and scores within 15 seconds). This is the second time this season that the defending champions have experienced such a scenario. Prior to their home game against Fulham, the last time the Citizens faced similar problems was in December 2022. However, an even more significant indicator of the fragility of Manchester City’s defense is the 11 goals conceded in ten matches – the worst statistic since Pep Guardiola’s first season (2016-2017).
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In addition to their domestic struggles, a startling debacle occurred in the Champions League. Manchester City conceded four goals in the same match for the first time since 2016, losing 1-4 away to Sporting. It is clear that Rodri’s absence has seriously impacted their play and results, but the Ballon d’Or injury cannot be used as an excuse for the failures of a team like Manchester City.
Brighton
The Seagulls have not been notable for their consistency recently, but they undoubtedly remain a team capable of taking advantage of Manchester City’s problems. This season, Fabian Gürtzel’s team managed to take points against Arsenal (1-1), make an incredible comeback against Tottenham (2-1) and almost stopped Liverpool’s winning streak on the last day .
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Brighton led at Anfield for almost an hour but conceded two goals in less than two minutes midway through the second half, sealing the fate of the match. The defeat at Liverpool (1-2) saw Fabian Gürtzel’s side fall to eighth place, but they remain in a strong position to aim for a Champions League place by the new year. They are just two points off the top four and have a favorable schedule after their match against Manchester City until the end of the year.
Brighton vs Manchester City: Author’s Prediction
In my opinion, the bookmakers are once again significantly overestimating Manchester City’s chances. Brighton certainly have the capabilities to at least avoid defeat against the reigning champions, if not to pick up their first win against the Citizens since 2021. However, I find the goal odds to be the most reliable bet. My prediction is that both teams score + total greater than (2.5).
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