The outbreak of prix of butteras unexpected as it is rapid, should calm down. This is what the experts judged a month ago.
Butter prices still high in the EU
However, Atla still does not quote butter in week 44, due to lack of exchange, after a downturn in mid-October. Sellers still have little supply, buyers are playing cautiously given the price levels. In Germany, the quotation of cubed butter of the Kempten Stock Exchange has certainly moved away from its historic high of €8,500/tonne reached on September 25 but remains, this November 6, at €8,000/tonne, unheard of. In the Netherlands, the slight relaxation observed at the beginning of October gave way to further strengthening, with the 25 kg block at €7,650/tonne on November 6. In Poland, prices rose above their previous record for 2022 in mid-October.
A worrying European milk collection
If the price of butter began to relax in mid-October, it was thanks to weak signals emanating from the collection. Indeed, if the breeders affected by FCO and MHE actually produce less milk, the others compensated in an economic incentive context and while fodder availability is good. But it appears that relief was premature. THE spot milk price in Germany and the Netherlands have rebounded. It will be necessary to advance further in the season to have more comfortable availability.
Decline in collections in Northern Europe
According to Gira forecasts, community collection should decline by 0.3% in the fourth quarter compared to last year, after having increased by 0.5% in the first three. This decline is attributable to expected declines in the Netherlands (-3%), Germany (-3%), Denmark (-0.5%) and Italy (-2%), reports AHDB. Conversely; Poland remains a driving force (+2% after an increase of 4.1% over the first 9 months of the year), as does, to a lesser extent, France (+1.5%). In Ireland, after a fall in volumes of 4.7% over nine months, forecasts are for a recovery (+2%).
Cream prices rise again
So the cream price have become tense again, particularly in France where prices exceed €10,500/tonne according to operators. A rise which has had repercussions on EEX, with contracts which have progressed again, including in the first quarter of 2025.
On the global market, the increase remains in order
The lack of milk fat in Europe has repercussions on the global market. Certainly European prices remain well above American and Oceanian references. However, the last auction session on Global Dairy Trade saw the butter index jump by 8.3%.
The cheese and powder market is calmer
The European industrial cheese market remains on a downward price trend while operators are more reassured about the balance between supply and demand. The European milk powder market is not very lively while several operators are at the Gulfood Manufacturing show in Dubai. Demand is nevertheless generally considered regular on firm price bases.
